U.S. Existing Home Sales Decline for Second Straight Month in July, Median Price Hits Second-Highest on Record
Nashnova编辑部
U.S. existing-home sales dropped 1.7% in July to a 4.06 million annualized rate — the second consecutive monthly decline — while the median price rose 2.0% year-over-year to $434,100, the second-highest ever. Volume is shrinking but prices won't budge, because high rates have locked in both buyers and sellers.
Sales are falling — so why are prices still rising?
July existing-home sales came in at an annualized 4.06 million, down 1.7% month-over-month and marking the second straight decline — though slightly above the 4.05 million economists expected.
The national median price rose 2.0% year-over-year to $434,100, second only to June's record $442,800.
This means → high rates have frozen both sides of the market: buyers balk at the cost, sellers refuse to give up cheap mortgages, and supply is shrinking faster than demand — so prices hold.
Why is inventory getting tighter?
July existing-home inventory fell 1.9% month-over-month to 1.54 million units, down 0.6% year-over-year; months' supply held at 4.6, flat with June.
Many homeowners carry fixed-rate mortgages below 5%. Selling means swapping into a new loan above 6%. In plain terms = selling your house is like giving yourself a rate hike, so nobody moves.
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.69% last week — the highest since July 2025 — up 26 basis points from early July and climbing for five consecutive weeks.
Who is getting squeezed out first?
First-time buyers made up just 29% of July sales, down from 33% in June. NAR says a healthy market typically needs that share near 40%.
This means → younger buyers with no existing low-rate mortgage to "lock in" and limited savings for a down payment are the first to exit when rates climb.
Regionally, sales declined in the Midwest and South, rose in the Northeast, and held flat in the West. Overall, July sales were still up 0.7% year-over-year.
Can this market hold up in the second half?
NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said existing-home sales have shown "considerable stability," but added that if mortgage rates drop to around 6%, the market "would undoubtedly be more active."
Brad Case, chief residential economist at Homes.com, noted some buyers have stopped waiting for lower rates: "They just say, I have to get on with my life."
This reflects a fragile equilibrium: economic uncertainty and labor-market worries weigh on demand, while supply stays locked by rates — the direction of mortgage rates will determine whether this balance tips up or down.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.