U.S. Existing Home Sales for April Rebounded for the Third Consecutive Month

Following its historical low at the end of last year, the US real estate market has shown signs of a spring thaw this year.

Data released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) on Tuesday shows that the US Pending Home Sales index for April increased by 1.4% month-on-month, not only better than the market expectation of 1.0%, but also achieving a monthly increase for the third consecutive month. At the same time, the increase for March was revised upwards.

Key Data Points: Emerging from the Historical Low

• Month-on-Month (MoM): Pending home sales increased by 1.4% in April compared to the expected 1.0%.

• Year-on-Year (YoY): The YoY increase in pending sales in April soared by 3.35%, marking the largest YoY increase since November 2024, further pulling this leading indicator away from the historical trough.

• Regional Performance: Last month, three out of the four major regions in the US saw an increase in home pending sales. The only exception was the largest housing market in the country – The South, which experienced a slight retreat in April after strong growth in the previous two months.

This report indicates that as the busiest traditional sales season of the year begins, the US real estate market is regaining its footing, benefiting from the gradual improvement in home affordability since mid-2025.

Interest Rate Expectations and Market "Lagged Disconnect"

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun commented in a statement, “Despite increasing economic uncertainties and a slight recent rise in mortgage interest rates, buyers are cautiously optimistic about re-entering the market.”

Looking at recent trends, there has been a certain degree of “disconnect” between market interest rates and pending sales. Even though recent mortgage rates have risen again due to geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns, pending sales have continued to increase. However, analysis points out that pending data is usually one or more months behind interest rate trends, so April's strength is mainly digesting the benefits of the previous period of stable interest rates.

Since pending home sales typically occur one to two months before the final closing of the home, this indicator has always been seen as a core leading indicator of the US existing home sales report.

The Shadow Behind the Prosperity: Persistent Marginalization of Low-Income Groups

Although the overall index is steadily recovering, the structural contradictions remain sharp. Lawrence Yun pointed out that for potential buyers from low-income groups, the still high mortgage interest rates and property listing prices keep them firmly outside the market.

In addition, the uneven hot and cold supply chain has also dampened the recovery of the real estate market. The Chief Financial Officer (CFO) of e-commerce giant Wayfair previously gave a rather bleak outlook for demand in home furnishings, which implies that even though the turnover rate of new and existing homes is recovering, the residential sector remains highly cautious about expanding significant peripheral consumption.