U.S. Gasoline Inventories Decline for 15 Consecutive Weeks, Approaching the Record
Claire Weston
U.S. gasoline stocks have dropped for 15 consecutive weeks — tying the 2012 record — to roughly 211.5 million barrels, while pump prices have surged about 50% since the war began.
Fifteen weeks of draws — how deep is the hole?
Gasoline inventories sit at roughly 211.5 million barrels, down sharply from over 253 million before the Iran conflict, about 5.5% below the five-year seasonal average — the lowest for this time of year since 2014.
This means → the stockpile cushion is thin; any supply hiccup could trigger a sharp price spike.
If next week's EIA data (due June 3) shows another draw, 2026 will set the longest consecutive gasoline-inventory decline on record, breaking the 2012 mark.
How much have prices risen — and who is paying?
The U.S. average gasoline price is now roughly $4.33 per gallon, up about 50% from before the U.S.–Israel–Iran war began on February 28, near a four-year high.
In plain terms = a typical family now pays close to half again as much every time they fill up.
This reflects the war's disruption to Middle Eastern crude supply, transmitted all the way to the pump.
Supply and demand — which side is squeezing harder?
Demand: the U.S. school year is ending, officially kicking off peak driving season. Family travel is climbing and gasoline consumption is set to accelerate further.
Supply: refiners processed 16.9 million barrels per day last week, the most since November — yet some plants prioritize exports, because international fuel prices often exceed domestic ones.
This means → refineries running flat-out does not guarantee domestic restocking; high throughput and high domestic supply are not the same thing.
Crude stocks are falling too — how connected is the problem?
U.S. crude inventories are expected to post a sixth straight weekly decline, the longest such streak since late 2024.
The main driver: the Iran war has tightened Middle Eastern crude supply, so upstream shortfalls drag directly on downstream product restocking.
In plain terms = crude and gasoline inventories are dropping in tandem — two buffers shrinking at once.
What comes next — what is the key variable?
Reuters columnist Gavin Maguire notes: a durable Middle East ceasefire that quickly reopens the Strait of Hormuz — the world's most critical oil-shipping chokepoint — could ease the inventory slide and cap recent price gains.
But if fighting flares again and Middle Eastern crude production and exports are disrupted once more, U.S. gasoline prices could face another leg higher this summer, intensifying cost-of-living pressure nationwide.
This means → for ordinary households, where pump prices go this summer hinges almost entirely on whether the Middle East can stabilize.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.