U.S. Industrial Production Rises 0.1% MoM in June, Below Expectations
Miles Bennett
The Fed reported Friday that U.S. industrial production rose just 0.1% month-on-month in June, missing the 0.2% consensus for a second straight month — the manufacturing-recovery narrative is still waiting for proof.
How far off was the number?
June industrial production grew 0.1% MoM, below the 0.2% market expectation and matching May's pace.
Two consecutive misses. This means → the "manufacturing has bottomed" thesis the market had been pricing in remains unconfirmed.
Year-on-year growth slowed from 1.6% in May to 1.1%, a clear loss of momentum.
Why does capacity utilization matter here?
June capacity utilization — how much of total factory capacity is actually running — came in at 76.1%, just under the 76.2% forecast.
A brief uptick in prior months has faded; the downtrend is back.
In plain terms = factories aren't just producing less than expected — they're also *running less of what they have*, which points to weak demand pull rather than supply constraints.
Why are "soft data" and "hard data" diverging?
Zero Hedge notes that recent manufacturing survey data — sentiment-based indicators like PMI questionnaires — had signaled a recovery.
Historically, soft data leads hard data. Industrial output should have followed with a visible upswing.
It hasn't. This reflects a broken transmission chain: business confidence has improved on paper, but that optimism has not yet translated into actual production expansion.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.