U.S. Inflation Stickiness Intensifies, Pressure Mounts on the Fed to Raise Rates
nashnova research
U.S. September CPI rose 0.6% month-on-month and core CPI hit 2.6% year-on-year — both well above the Fed's 2% target — shifting the debate from whether to hike to whether one hike is enough.
How strong was the September inflation print?
CPI rose 0.6% month-on-month, the fastest in five months; the annual rate climbed from 3.4% in August to 3.7%.
Core CPI — stripping out food and energy — reached 2.6% year-on-year, up from 2.4%.
This means → both headline and core accelerated together; inflation is broadening, not driven by a single outlier.
Where is the price pressure coming from — just oil?
Not just oil. The Iran conflict pushed up energy costs, which fed through to transport prices; wholesalers squeezed by tariffs and fuel passed more costs downstream.
Services inflation hit 3.2% year-on-year through September, showing price pressure has spread beyond goods.
In plain terms = if only oil were expensive, a ceasefire could cool things down; services rising too means the roots go deeper.
Why hasn't the Fed hiked immediately?
Chair Kevin Warsh deliberately avoided saying "the balance of risks has tilted toward hiking," and markets priced an 85% probability of no move in October.
Rising bond yields have already tightened financial conditions — even with rates on hold, borrowing costs are climbing and restraining demand.
This means → the Fed is buying time, letting market rates do part of the work.
Can it afford to wait until December?
Bloomberg commentary argues the balance of risks has materially shifted: the current rate is not restrictive enough to pull inflation back to 2%.
Long-term inflation expectations are quietly drifting higher — this reflects growing doubt that the Fed can keep things under control.
If data over the coming weeks fail to improve, a hike becomes unavoidable — and a single 25-basis-point move may still not be enough.
Put simply = the question has moved from "to hike or not" to "is one hike enough."
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。