U.S. July Consumer Confidence Index Falls to 90.8, Present Situation Index Hits Lowest in Over Four Years
Alina Collins
US consumer confidence fell to 90.8 in July, missing expectations, with the present situation index at its lowest since February 2021 — a sign that how Americans feel about the economy right now is getting steadily worse, and whether that drags down actual spending is the next thing to watch.
How far did confidence fall?
The Conference Board reported July consumer confidence at 90.8, down from a revised 92.2 in June — below both the Reuters consensus of 92.3 and the Bloomberg median of 92.4.
The index has been trending lower since late 2021; July extended the slide.
This means → markets expected a modest stabilization, but the actual reading came in weaker — consumer-side pressure is larger than anticipated.
What do the "present" and "expectations" components show?
The present situation index dropped to 114.9, its lowest since February 2021, declining for a third straight month.
The expectations index held at 74.7, roughly flat with June but still in negative territory.
In plain terms = consumers feel today's economy is getting harder to deal with; their outlook hasn't worsened further, but it's far from optimistic.
What changed in how people see the job market?
The share of consumers calling jobs "plentiful" fell to 24.6%; those calling jobs "hard to get" also edged down slightly.
The gap between the two — the labor market differential — narrowed to its lowest since 2021, signaling rising pressure on job seekers.
Chief economist Dana Peterson noted that open-ended survey responses turned notably more pessimistic, with mentions of employment and unemployment rising.
How are gas and food prices weighing on confidence?
The survey ran July 1–22. Gas prices briefly hit their lowest since March during that window, then rebounded on escalating US–Iran tensions before easing again after the US paused strikes.
Consumer mentions of oil and gas prices dipped but remained elevated; complaints about food and grocery prices actually increased.
This reflects a deeper pattern: even a temporary pullback in gas prices cannot offset the steady erosion of confidence from rising everyday costs like food.
Why did the Michigan survey point the other way?
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose to a five-month high this month — the opposite direction.
The key difference is timing: most Michigan responses were collected before the US struck Iran.
In plain terms = the two surveys captured consumer mood over different windows; the Iran conflict variable hit only the Conference Board reading, which explains the divergence.
What should we watch next?
The present situation index at a four-year-plus low means consumers' real-time read on the economy is the weakest since the post-pandemic recovery began.
This means → the critical test ahead is whether falling confidence translates into weaker consumer spending — if households actually start pulling back, the drag on economic growth intensifies.
Retail sales and personal consumption expenditure data are the next checkpoints to see if deteriorating sentiment turns into action.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.