U.S. Military Long-Range Precision Missile Stockpiles Nearly Depleted, Deterrence Capability Against China Questioned
Alina Collins
The U.S. Army has burned through nearly all its ATACMS and PrSM long-range missiles in roughly five months of fighting Iran — the same weapons considered essential for any potential conflict with China, raising direct questions about America's ability to fight on multiple fronts.
What was used up, and why so fast?
The depleted weapons are ATACMS — the Army Tactical Missile System, a ground-launched missile with a range of about 300 km — and PrSM, its longer-range next-generation replacement. Each round costs over $1 million.
This means → what ran low is not general ammunition but the Army's only ground-based tool for striking deep behind an adversary's air defenses.
The burn rate exceeded expectations partly because the Trump administration deliberately avoided using manned aircraft for strikes, funneling the mission load onto missiles.
What risks does near-zero inventory create?
U.S. Central Command has essentially exhausted its pre-war stock of ground-launched missiles and is now drawing from U.S. inventories in other regions worldwide.
In plain terms = the military is robbing Peter to pay Paul — pulling stocks from the Asia-Pacific or Europe to cover the Middle East gap.
This reflects a deeper problem: defensive weapons are also running low. Patriot interceptor stocks have triggered a formal warning from military leaders to the president.
Over the past week, Trump administration officials have held tense internal discussions on how long strikes on Iran can continue without pushing reserves to dangerous levels.
What does the White House say — and is it credible?
A White House statement said the U.S. has ammunition "far exceeding what is needed" and that defense firms are "producing at unprecedented rates while expanding capacity at record speed."
Analysts acknowledge some production lines have indeed hit record output, but warn that a protracted conflict could still far outstrip current capacity.
This means → the White House claim is not technically wrong in the short term, but it sidesteps a key fact — production ramp-up cannot keep pace with wartime consumption rates.
Can manufacturing keep up?
Lockheed Martin produces ATACMS, PrSM, and the THAAD terminal missile-defense system. Raytheon produces Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot interceptors. Neither company commented on inventory levels.
The Army had already announced ATACMS would be phased out, shifting production to PrSM. But a CSIS report from March noted that PrSM pre-war stocks were inherently limited as a newer system.
In plain terms = the old model is being retired, bulk orders of the new one won't deliver until 2027, and in between sits a dangerous production gap.
Why does this drag in China deterrence?
ATACMS and PrSM are considered equally indispensable in any potential conflict with China — they are the core means of penetrating a peer adversary's air defenses at range.
ATACMS had already played a critical role in Ukraine, where it was used to strike targets inside Russian territory; now it is being consumed heavily in the Middle East.
This means → U.S. long-range precision strike capacity is being drained simultaneously across multiple theaters. Whether stockpiles can be replenished before the conflict ends is the central variable that strategists and markets will be watching.
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