U.S. September Retail Sales Rise 0.8% MoM, Significantly Beating Expectations
nashnova research
U.S. retail sales rose 0.8% month-over-month in September, nearly triple the 0.3% consensus, bringing total sales to $745 billion. Combined with a hotter-than-expected CPI, the data gives the Fed more reason to hold rates higher for longer.
How far did sales beat the forecast?
September retail sales grew 0.8% month-over-month; the consensus was just 0.3%.
Core retail sales — excluding autos — rose 0.9%, also well above the expected 0.5%.
This means → the strength was broad-based, not driven by a single category.
Where did consumers spend?
Total retail sales reached $745 billion. August's prior reading was revised up from 1.2% to 1.3%.
Excluding gasoline and autos, sales rose 0.2%, in line with expectations; the prior month revised to 1.1%.
In plain terms = strip out fuel-price swings and big-ticket car purchases, and everyday spending is still growing — just at a slower pace.
Why does this make a Fed rate cut harder?
September CPI had already shown inflation pressure picking up. Now consumer spending has surprised to the upside too.
This means → the economy is not cooling and prices are not falling back — the Fed lacks a reason to ease.
This reflects a bind: as long as consumers keep spending, inflation is unlikely to retreat on its own, and the tight-policy stance will probably last longer.
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