U.S. Software ETF Turns Positive for the Year for the First Time, Less Than 9% From All-Time High
N.R. Finch
The iShares software ETF (IGV) has turned positive for the year for the first time, rallying 44% from its April low and sitting less than 9% below its September record — the "SaaS doomsday" fear is fading fast as money rotates from semiconductors into software.
How big is this software rally?
IGV surged roughly 6% on Monday, pushing its year-to-date return positive for the first time; it has now rallied 44% from the April trough.
This means → the "SaaS doomsday" narrative — software stocks had fallen nearly 40% from their peak — is being abandoned by the market.
In plain terms = six months ago, the consensus was that AI would wipe out software companies; that call is being reversed.
Who is leading the charge?
Cybersecurity is the standout sector: the Amplify Cybersecurity ETF (HACK) is up more than 30% year-to-date.
Two names dominate — CrowdStrike is up 67% and Palo Alto Networks is up 63% for the year.
Amplify ETFs CEO Christian Magoon's logic: more AI means more targets to protect → cybersecurity demand rises, not falls, and M&A potential grows with it.
Where is options-market money flowing?
As early as mid-May, some traders shifted call-option positioning from the semiconductor ETF (SMH) to IGV.
Monday's data is stark: IGV call volume exceeded put volume by more than 2-to-1; SMH showed the opposite — put volume was three times call volume.
This reflects a directional bet by informed money: semiconductor short-term momentum is fading, and software is taking the baton.
What does Oracle's options signal tell us?
Oracle is the largest holding in IGV; on Monday its options generated $1.3 billion in total premium.
$1 billion of that was tied to calls; call volume ran roughly three times put volume, with over 114,000 calls bought versus only about 25,000 puts.
This means → the market's bet on Oracle is overwhelmingly bullish — real capital, not just sentiment, is backing software leadership.
What is the next test?
Several software heavyweights report earnings in the coming weeks: Palo Alto Networks (Tuesday), CrowdStrike (Wednesday), Oracle (later this month).
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives calls the rally "red-hot, proving the doubters wrong day by day" — but earnings are hard data that will test whether the rebound has fundamental support.
For CrowdStrike, the options market implies roughly 9% stock-price movement around the report, but Cboe LiveVol data shows the market overestimated actual moves in all seven of the past quarters. In plain terms = the dramatic swing the market is pricing in has historically failed to materialize.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.