U.S. Stocks Fall for Five Straight Weeks as S&P 500 Pulls Back 9.1% from Peak
Miles Bennett
The S&P 500 has dropped for five consecutive weeks, falling 9.1% from its peak two months ago — yet markets have not reached the kind of panic-driven, indiscriminate selling that would signal an obvious buying opportunity.
Five weeks of losses — what is the market afraid of?
The core variable is the trajectory of the Iran conflict and the resulting energy shock. CNBC commentator Mike Santoli notes the probability distribution is shifting from "quick de-escalation" to "prolonged quagmire."
This means → scenarios once considered extreme — $200-a-barrel oil and stagflation — are increasingly being priced in as realistic outcomes.
In plain terms = the market initially assumed "this won't escalate." Now it's starting to believe "this could drag on," and oil-price and inflation expectations are rising accordingly.
Which key technical levels have broken?
The S&P 500 has fallen through its 100-day moving average, 200-day moving average, and the Q4 low — the short-term downtrend is clear.
Santoli argues that even a 4% snapback rally would not be enough to reverse the current trend.
Historical data shows that after five consecutive down weeks, the S&P 500's near-term returns have been below average on balance — not a launchpad for a powerful rebound.
Why does this year's pattern mirror the 2025 tariff panic?
In 2025 the S&P 500 peaked in January; by the last Friday in March it had fallen 9.1% from that peak. This year, at the same calendar point, the decline is also exactly 9.1%.
What followed in 2025: "Liberation Day" policy details far exceeded expectations, the index dropped into a 20% drawdown, then staged a six-month rally of 40%.
This means → if this correction does not reach the same extreme depth as 2025, the subsequent rebound may be correspondingly weaker — the shallower the fall, the weaker the bounce.
Valuations have come down — is it time to buy the dip?
The Nasdaq 100 forward P/E — a gauge of how "expensive" an index is based on expected earnings over the next year — has fallen to 21.5×, near the post-"Liberation Day" low. The S&P 500 forward P/E is down to 19.4×, well below the October high of 23×.
Santoli is cautious: current earnings forecasts are inflated by semiconductor and energy company estimates and do not yet reflect the drag from surging energy, chemicals, and shipping costs.
US Treasury yields have risen to the top of their one-year range, while big tech platforms are pouring free cash flow into data-center construction — undermining the "asset-light → high valuation" thesis that once justified their premiums.
So how should investors read this level?
The market is in a state of "oversold but not extreme"; the collective verdict from technical observers is "not yet."
This means → a bounce window could open at any moment, but a true price bottom may still lie ahead.
In plain terms = stocks have fallen meaningfully, but not enough to trigger the kind of capitulation selling that historically marks a real floor — it doesn't hurt enough yet.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.