Ukraine's Record Attacks on Russian Refineries in August as Fuel Shortages Spread to Moscow
nashnova research
Ukraine struck Russian refineries at least 21 times in August, a single-month record since the 2022 invasion; Russian refining throughput has fallen to a twenty-year low, and fuel shortages have now reached Moscow, where long queues at gas stations are becoming routine.
What was the August 28 target?
Ukrainian drones hit the Yanos refinery overnight, located roughly 280 km northeast of Moscow in the Yaroslavl region.
The plant has a design capacity of about 300,000 barrels per day, is co-owned by Gazprom Neft, and is one of Russia's largest fuel-production facilities — a key supplier to Moscow and its surroundings.
The regional governor said all 67 drones were intercepted, but falling debris struck industrial sites and residential areas, sparking fires; Ukraine's general staff said the refinery itself caught fire, with damage still being assessed.
How intense were August's strikes overall?
Bloomberg tallied at least 21 Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries in August — the highest single-month count since the full-scale invasion began in 2022.
This month Ukraine hit four of Russia's ten largest refineries. This means → the campaign is no longer sporadic harassment but a systematic effort aimed at Russia's most critical refining capacity.
A brief ceasefire window in late July had allowed Russian fuel supplies to partially recover, but that respite ended quickly.
How badly is Russian refining capacity damaged?
EA Analytics estimates Russian refining throughput in August averaged just over 3.8 million barrels per day, versus a normal summer-peak range of 5.3–5.5 million bpd — the lowest level in more than twenty years.
In plain terms = normal summer output tops five million barrels; now it is below four million — a gap of nearly 30%.
A person familiar with the data said Russian gasoline output and domestic supply fell nearly 20% year-on-year in the first three weeks of August; diesel output dropped more than 23%, though a summer ban on most diesel exports limited the domestic supply decline to roughly 3%.
What are Moscow residents experiencing?
Fuel shortages have spread from remote regions to the capital — queues of 30 to 50 cars at Moscow gas stations are no longer unusual, and residents share daily updates in community chats on where fuel is still available.
From the Baltic coast to deep Siberia, dozens of regions have reimposed fuel-purchase limits.
A price split has emerged: independent stations charge about 100 rubles per liter (≈$1.20), while majors with their own refineries sell below 80 rubles, yet most drivers still refuse to pay the independents' premium.
Can supply recover by autumn?
An EA Analytics analyst forecasts September throughput will edge up to about 4.2 million bpd, but warns that downside risk remains if drone strikes continue at the current pace.
Moscow has extended its gasoline export ban through the end of January 2027 and is studying whether to push the diesel export ban beyond September.
This reflects a lack of confidence that normal supply can be restored any time soon. With the summer holiday ending and the agricultural peak winding down, whether fuel supply can meaningfully improve before autumn will be a key test of this energy war of attrition.
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