UN Warns Super El Niño to Persist Into Early 2027, Impacting Food and Energy
nashnova research
The World Meteorological Organization warns the current El Niño is intensifying to super strength and will last through February 2027, with crop losses already emerging across Asia-Pacific and Latin America and commodity-price volatility set to persist for the next six months.
How strong is this El Niño?
Tropical eastern Pacific sea-surface temperatures ran over 2 °C above normal in July; from late July to mid-August the anomaly reached 2.2–2.6 °C.
The more telling number is below the surface: sub-surface ocean temperatures exceeded the average by over 8 °C in July and early August.
This means → the deep heat reservoir is unusually large, pointing to both a longer duration and a higher peak intensity than a typical El Niño cycle.
Which regions are hit first?
Indonesia is battling severe wildfires; India's monsoon season is running weak, threatening output of rice, sugar, cotton and soybeans.
Peru says anchovy fishing — a key global source of livestock feed — has suffered a "devastating blow."
Three Central American nations (Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador) face sharp crop losses from drought; El Salvador declared a state of emergency on August 25.
What does this mean for energy and commodities?
Extreme weather disrupts both supply and demand: hydropower, wind and solar output become erratic, while oil and gas production and refining are also exposed.
In plain terms = food supply chains and energy supply chains are being shaken at the same time, and the price swings in each amplify the other.
This reflects a deeper risk: commodity markets face not a single shock but a food-plus-energy double disruption, with elevated volatility lasting into early 2027.
What are UN leaders saying?
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo: "This event has the potential to deliver major blows to communities and economies around the world."
UN Secretary-General António Guterres said El Niño is being "super-charged before our eyes" and that "the world is in the danger zone for extreme weather."
This means → two of the UN's most senior officials issued public warnings on the same day — a clear signal that governments and markets need to prepare now for six months of climate extremes.
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