US and Iran Close to Reaching a Memorandum of Understanding, Potentially Initiating 30-Day Negotiations

Multiple media sources, including Reuters, report that the United States and Iran are gradually approaching a one-page Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). This memorandum aims to put an end to the war and set the framework for more detailed negotiations on nuclear issues.

If the agreement is eventually reached, it will not only declare the end of the current armed conflict but also lay the groundwork for the lifting of sanctions, the release of tens of billions of dollars of frozen funds, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, profoundly impacting the global energy market, geopolitical risk pricing, and the trajectory of Iranian assets.

An authoritative source from Pakistan told Xinhua News Agency on the 6th that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, conducted through Pakistan, seem to be showing promise, with "low-profile negotiations expected to translate into tangible results."

If MOU is reached, it will initiate 30 days of agreement negotiations

The spokesperson of Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said to CNBC on the 6th that Iran is "assessing" the ceasefire MOU proposed by the U.S., which includes 14 clauses.

The report states that the U.S. is expected to receive responses from Iran on multiple key clauses within the next 48 hours. Insiders say this is the closest the two sides have been to an agreement since the conflict erupted, with Trump's recent decision to hold off on new combat operations in the Strait of Hormuz partially due to his assessment of the progress of negotiations.

According to the current draft of the memorandum under consultation, Iran will commit to suspending uranium enrichment activities, the U.S. will commit to gradually lifting sanctions and releasing billions of dollars of frozen Iranian assets, and both sides will also phase out restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz. If signed, the memorandum will officially open a 30-day window for detailed agreement negotiations.

The single-page, 14-point Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) is reportedly being negotiated by Trump's special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner with Iranian officials through both direct contact and mediation by intermediaries.

The current draft of the MOU will declare an official end to regional conflicts and immediately initiate 30 days of detailed agreement negotiations. According to media引用s of two insiders, the negotiation site may be chosen in Islamabad or Geneva. Within the 30-day window, Iran's restrictions on strait shipping and the U.S. naval blockade will be gradually lifted. A U.S. official stated that if the negotiations fail, the U.S. military will retain the right to resume the blockade or restart military operations.

It is worth noting that many clauses in the memorandum are premised on the finalization of an agreement. This means that if subsequent negotiations fail, the situation may reignite conflicts or lead to a long-term stalemate where the main issues remain unresolved despite the cessation of hostilities, and market uncertainties are not thereby eliminated.

Uranium Enrichment Ban, Disparity in Duration is the Biggest Negotiation Variable

The nuclear issue is the core focus of the current negotiations. According to the media引述 from three insiders, the discussed suspension period for uranium enrichment is at least 12 years, with another insider believing 15 years is a more likely landing point. Iran initially proposed a 5-year suspension, while the U.S. requested 20 years, and the disparity between the two sides remains significant.

In terms of specific clause design, the U.S. hopes to include an automatic extension clause, stipulating that if Iran violates the uranium enrichment ban, the suspension period will be automatically extended. After the ban expires, Iran will be allowed to enrich uranium to a low enrichment level of 3.67%.

Iran will also commit in the memorandum to never seeking nuclear weapons, not engaging in weaponization-related activities, agreeing not to operate underground nuclear facilities, and accepting a strengthened verification mechanism, including allowing UN inspectors to conduct surprise inspections.

A core clause that Iran has always refused is showing signs of softening – Iran may agree to move highly enriched uranium out of the country, with transferring nuclear materials to the United States being one of the options under discussion.

The U.S. will also commit to gradually lifting sanctions on Iran and phasing the release of billions of dollars of Iranian funds frozen around the world. The use of the term "grad