US-Iran Talks at an Impasse, Trump Assembles Security Team to Discuss Strikes

The Iran nuclear diplomacy process is in a deep stalemate, and the risk of military strikes has risen significantly. According to CCTV News, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei clearly stated on May 22 that there are "serious and widespread" differences between Iran and the US, and it cannot be claimed that the two sides' agreements are close to being reached. The focus of the current negotiations is only on promoting the end of war, and nuclear issues are not on the agenda at this stage.

At the same time, Trump convened the National Security team on the same day to discuss military options for Iran, including Vice President Vans, Secretary of Defense Hegseth, CIA Director Ratcliffe, and White House Chief of Staff Wiles. Several military and intelligence personnel have canceled their Memorial Day weekend leave, and defense and intelligence officials have also started to update the emergency recall registers of US overseas military bases.

The change in Trump's itinerary also attracted attention. He originally planned to go on vacation in New Jersey and attend his son's wedding, but decided to return to the White House, citing "special circumstances related to government affairs" on social media. Sources who have spoken directly with Trump said that unless there is a breakthrough in negotiations at the last minute, Trump is seriously considering launching new strikes against Iran.

The core differences between the US and Iran are clearly visible. The US side requires Iran to commit to a long-term suspension of the uranium enrichment program in the framework agreement and transfer nearly weapon-grade enriched uranium to the US; Iran, on the other hand, hopes that the agreement focuses on ending the conflict, lifting the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and obtaining financial relief, and is unwilling to make concessions on nuclear issues in advance. A US official who heard a briefing on the diplomatic process described the negotiations as "excruciating," saying that the draft for the negotiations was "passed back and forth every day," but no substantial progress has been made.

Secretary of State Rubio said on the same day that there was "some progress" in the negotiations, but reiterated that Iran must never have nuclear weapons, and the issue of uranium enrichment capabilities and existing nuclear material inventory must be resolved. Earlier in the day, there was a brief optimistic expectation in the market, and media reports claimed that Iran had reached an understanding on the overall framework of the nuclear issue, causing oil prices to fall sharply in the short term; but then the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs denied the rumor, and oil prices rebounded quickly, and market sentiment returned to caution.

In terms of diplomatic mediation, the Chief of Staff of the Pakistani Army, Munir, arrived in Tehran on the evening of the 22nd, and the Qatari delegation also held talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Alzagqi on the same day. According to the Wall Street Journal, the direct goal of the mediation efforts is not to reach a formal agreement, but to strive for the signing of some kind of letter of intent or memorandum of understanding, to extend the ceasefire and build a framework for subsequent negotiations. If even this limited goal cannot be achieved, the United States and Israel may launch strikes on Iran's energy and other economic targets in the coming days.

The Israeli side is worried that Trump may accept an insufficient agreement. According to informed sources, the atmosphere was tense when Trump and Netanyahu spoke on Tuesday this week, with Netanyahu strongly opposing a ceasefire agreement with Iran, and Trump defended the diplomatic process. Saudi Arabia also warned Iran earlier this week that if an agreement is not reached at this time, the situation may further escalate.

In terms of the Strait of Hormuz, a US official said on the 22nd that the US military has not yet discovered or destroyed any explosive naval mines in the strait, but the commercial traffic in the strait is far below the level before the war, and the overall scale has significantly shrunk. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard warned that if subjected to a new round of strikes, the conflict will expand beyond the region. Last weekend, the UAE stated that a drone allegedly from an armed group allied with Iran in Iraq hit its nuclear power plant generator, showing the potential risk of the conflict further spilling over.