US military reconnaissance flights intensify near Cuba, similar to pre-aggression against Venezuela and Iran

CNN reported on May 10 that U.S. military reconnaissance aircraft have significantly increased their frequency of flights near the coast of Cuba, with an unusually close approach in recent years.

After analyzing publicly available aviation tracking data, CNN found that this reconnaissance pattern closely matches the intelligence preparation phase before the U.S. launched military actions against Venezuela and Iran earlier this year.

According to a review, since February 4, U.S. military P-8A anti-submarine patrol aircraft, RC-135C electronic reconnaissance aircraft, and MQ-4C drones have carried out at least 25 flight missions in the airspace around Cuba, mainly for reconnaissance, surveillance, and electronic signal collection. Most flight routes are concentrated near the two largest cities in Cuba, Havana and Santiago, with some missions flying less than 64 kilometers from the Cuban coastline.

CNN pointed out that these flights significantly deviate from the previous conventional levels in both the number of sorties and the closeness of approach. The report specifically mentioned that similar escalations in reconnaissance activities were also observed before the U.S. launched military strikes against Venezuela in early January and Iran in late February.

If the situation further escalates, the energy market may be the first to be disturbed, and there is also an upward risk in shipping and insurance costs passing through the region. In the short term, safe-haven assets may receive some support.

Subsequently, it is necessary to closely watch for any further adjustments in U.S. military deployments and public statements from the White House and the Pentagon on Cuban issues. Any changes in policy signals could quickly be transmitted to risk asset pricing.