US Pre-Market Movers: Trump Media Falls 11%, Duolingo Surges 18%
nashnova research
The 2026 midterm Democratic sweep is the single biggest pre-market macro shock, hammering AI infrastructure stocks across the board, while several earnings beats create sharp single-name divergences.
Democrats won — who got sold first?
Trump Media & Technology Group — owner of Truth Social — fell 11% pre-market. Trump himself holds a 41% stake. This means → the market treats the stock as a direct proxy for presidential-power premium; Congress flips, the premium shrinks.
Tesla dropped nearly 6%; SpaceX fell over 7%. Both operate AI supercomputing infrastructure on US soil, and several newly elected Democrats have openly opposed rapid data-center expansion.
In plain terms = the election result hit more than political sentiment — it dented policy certainty for AI buildout.
Why did "neocloud" stocks fall in unison?
CoreWeave fell 7%, Iren 6%, Nebius ~5%. These are neocloud companies — a new class of cloud providers purpose-built to supply GPU compute for AI training.
Democrats flipped Texas, and voters in multiple districts rejected data-center projects on the ballot. This means → the market reads it as a policy-headwind signal: legislative action could slow the buildout pace.
The actual legislative direction on AI regulation and data-center policy will be the key test of whether this sell-off has legs.
Which earnings beats bucked the trend?
Duolingo surged 18%: Q3 revenue hit $309 million, above the $303 million consensus; monthly active users reached 153 million vs. 149 million expected; adjusted EBITDA margin also beat.
Alight, an employee-benefits consultancy, jumped 22% after raising its full-year outlook: revenue guidance of $2.115–2.125 billion topped the $2.09 billion consensus; adjusted EBITDA guidance of $410–420 million beat the $404.4 million estimate.
Novo Nordisk rose over 6% on EPS of DKK 5.79 (~$0.63), above the DKK 5.10 consensus, and raised its full-year outlook on improving sales for its GLP-1 products — a class of weight-loss and diabetes drugs.
Tech earnings beat — so why were gains modest?
Block rose 9%: Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.13 beat the $1.03 consensus; revenue of $6.72 billion topped the $6.59 billion estimate, and full-year guidance was raised.
Arista Networks gained 4%: Q4 revenue guidance of $3.9–4.0 billion came in well above the $3.6 billion analyst estimate.
Super Micro Computer edged up 2%, beating on both EPS and revenue and guiding FY2027 net sales to $72–82 billion, above the $69.17 billion consensus. In plain terms = the numbers were fine, but macro uncertainty from the election capped the upside.
Who stumbled on earnings?
Skyworks Solutions dropped ~11%, the deepest decline: guidance called for adjusted EPS of roughly $1.25 vs. the $1.50 consensus and revenue of $1.8–1.9 billion vs. the $1.99 billion estimate. This was the first full quarter after its merger with Qorvo, and the market voted no-confidence on integration progress.
Toast fell 5% — Q3 results actually beat FactSet estimates, but CFO Elena Gomez announced she will leave by year-end. This means → the concern is not the numbers but management stability.
CVS Health slid over 2% after announcing it will split into two separately listed companies by the first half of 2028, effectively unwinding its $78 billion acquisition of Aetna.
McDonald's and AMD — good or bad?
McDonald's rose 2%: adjusted EPS of $3.57 beat the $3.38 estimate, but revenue of $7.16 billion fell short of the $7.29 billion consensus — a classic "profit beat, revenue miss" mixed signal.
AMD was roughly flat pre-market: adjusted EPS of $2.09 beat the $1.95 consensus, and current-quarter revenue guidance also came in above expectations. In plain terms = solid numbers, but the market had no appetite to price them in amid the election shock.
Avis Budget Group fell ~2%: EPS of $5.15 was cut roughly in half from $10.11 a year ago; revenue of $3.44 billion only barely topped the $3.42 billion estimate.
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