US Stock Options Market Turns Extremely Optimistic

Goldman Sachs' latest strategy report points out that the US stock options market has completed a historical reversal in the past six weeks. The firm's data shows that at the end of March, the gamma position of traders once hit a historical second low of negative $7.24 billion, reflecting the market's extreme concern about hard landings and geopolitical risks.

However, the latest data shows that this indicator has soared to a positive $21.3 billion, the eighth highest in history. Goldman Sachs believes that this switch from extreme short positions to heavy long positions means that market sentiment has quickly shifted from a comprehensive risk aversion to a frenzy for AI capital expenditure cycles and volatility suppression.

The firm warns that the current combination of extremely high gamma and low skewness is strikingly similar to the "melt-up" phase after the stimulus policies in 2021. The skewness of put-call options for individual stocks in the S&P 500 has dropped to the lowest 3% percentile in the past decade, showing that the market's disregard for downside protection has reached an extreme.AI Drives Profit and Capital Expenditure to Soar

Goldman Sachs emphasizes that the reversal in sentiment is not baseless, and strong corporate earnings provide core support. The firm expects that the S&P 500 index's earnings per share (EPS) for the first quarter will grow by 17% year-on-year, achieving double-digit growth for six consecutive quarters, and this profit revision is mainly driven by AI-related fields.

Goldman Sachs forecasts that the capital expenditure (capex) of S&P 500 companies will surge by 33% to $2 trillion in 2026, while the pace of repurchases will only increase by 3%. Super large-scale companies are becoming the financial engine of the global AI ecosystem.

The top tech giants, in particular, are expected to have a capital expenditure of $755 billion in 2026. Goldman Sachs analysis shows that this figure has approached 100% of their operating cash flow, reflecting the determination of big companies to "go all in" in the AI arms race.Asian and Chinese Assets Become New Focus

The Asian market is welcoming a record inflow of funds driven by the global AI industry chain. Main broker data from Goldman Sachs shows that the net purchase volume in the Asian region has hit a new high since 2016, and institutions are betting on the expansion of the AI map by going long on South Korean and Taiwanese markets.

It is worth noting that the firm has observed that Chinese assets are once again becoming the target of tactical allocation. With investors seeking hedging tools, the demand for FXI call options has increased significantly. Historical data from Goldman Sachs shows that after meetings between high-level officials from China and the United States, the Chinese stock market can usually generate excess returns in the following three months.

The current position in the Chinese market is not crowded, and mutual funds are still underweight. Goldman Sachs' China-US relations barometer shows that the tension between the two countries has not yet become a core factor in driving macro pricing, which provides the market with room to play rebounds.Goldman Sachs Warns of Market Fragility Under "Pseudo-Stability"

Despite strong fundamentals, Goldman Sachs has postponed the timing of the last two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to the end of 2026 or even 2027. The firm cautions that inflation stickiness means that interest rates will remain high for a longer period, eventually raising the valuation threshold for long-term growth assets.

From a structural perspective, Goldman Sachs points out that when the gamma and skewness in