Venture Global to Release Earnings Report tomorrow, Revenue Expected to Increase 44% YoY but Profits Face Pressure

Venture Global (NYSE: VG) will release its financial report for the first quarter of 2026 before the US stock market opens tomorrow and will hold an earnings conference call at 9 AM Eastern Time. Wall Street expects the company's first quarter revenue to be about $4.17 billion, a year-over-year increase of 44.2%; the expected loss per share is $0.13, which is a significant deterioration compared to the profit of $0.16 per share in the same period last year. Over the past 30 days, analysts have revised the consensus EPS estimate down by 16.14%.

The company has already disclosed the operational data for the first quarter in April in advance: a total of 130 LNG ships were exported in the first quarter, with total sales volume reaching 480.8 TBtu, and the weighted average fixed liquefaction cost was $3.82 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). Among them, the Plaquemines facility contributed 339.6 TBtu, 92 ships, accounting for about 70%, and Calcasieu Pass contributed 141.2 TBtu, 38 ships. In addition, there are 2 ships of 8.3 TBtu of DES cargo that will be deferred to the second quarter to confirm revenue.

The pressure on profits mainly comes from the cost pressure brought by the rise in natural gas prices in winter, as well as the continuous capital investment during the Plaquemines facility's capacity ramp-up period. Comparing with the previous quarter, the company has just handed in an impressive report card: the EPS in the fourth quarter of 2025 was $0.41, exceeding market expectations by about 18%; revenue was $4.5 billion, a year-over-year increase of 191.7%, setting a high comparative benchmark for this financial report.

The spot price exposure is the biggest potential variable in this financial report. Morgan Stanley analyst Devin McDermott pointed out that about 30% of Venture Global's 2026 cargo sales are still facing the spot market, and the average proportion of unrealized percentages from 2026 to 2029 is about 40%. A one-dollar fluctuation in spot profits per million British thermal units will affect the company's 2026 EBITDA by approximately $575 million to $625 million. The recent sharp increase in spot LNG prices has brought significant upward elasticity to the company.

In terms of contract visibility, about 69% of the expected production capacity of the company for 2026 has been locked up. In March, the company signed a new agreement with Vitol for LNG purchases for five years, approximately 1.5 MTPA, further strengthening the visibility of recent income. In terms of project financing, the CP2 LNG facility has obtained an additional $8.6 billion in financing, bringing the total financing scale for the project to $20.7 billion, of which the first phase locked in $12.1 billion in July 2025.

Investors need to focus on three lines: the progress of Plaquemines's capacity ramp-up and the annual production guidance; the actual impact of spot price exposure on annual EBITDA; and the latest statements from management on the CP2 project construction schedule.

In terms of analyst ratings, currently 8 analysts have given a buy rating, and 9 have given a hold rating. The overall consensus is "hold," with an average target price of about $15.77, implying an approximate 38% upside compared to the current stock price of $11.45. Morgan Stanley significantly upgraded the rating from underweight to overweight on March 23, raising the target price from $8 to $22; Goldman Sachs's target price is $18.50; Bank of America's target price is $16.

It should be noted that in the past 90 days, company insiders have cumulatively reduced their holdings by about 6.09 million shares and cashed out about $84.6 million, including significant reductions by the Chief Accounting Officer and a vice president. This signal is worth investors' attention. So far this year, VG's stock price has fallen by about 40%, and it is currently fluctuating in the $11 to $12 range, still a significant distance from the 52-week high of $19.50.