Vietnam Submits Final Trade Deal Text to the U.S., Hoping for Swift Signing
nashnova research
Vietnam has handed Washington the final text of a reciprocal trade agreement after seven rounds of talks, calling negotiations essentially complete. But U.S. officials at the same summit signalled that gaps on the trade deficit and market access remain wide — leaving the deal's fate uncertain.
What did Vietnam submit, and where do talks stand?
Deputy Prime Minister Pham Gia Tuc told the U.S.–Vietnam Business Summit that Vietnam has delivered a "final text" and that negotiators have "essentially completed" the talks.
This means → Vietnam considers the draft ready to sign, but "completed" ≠ "agreed" — Washington has not signalled acceptance.
The negotiations began in April 2025 and ran through seven rounds. A framework deal was announced in October 2025, yet the final wording stalled. This submission is Hanoi's latest push to close.
What does the U.S. want — and why hasn't it said yes?
Commerce Assistant Secretary David Fogel stressed that "reducing the trade deficit" is Washington's top priority.
Assistant Secretary of State Michael DeSombre went further, demanding "bold steps": renegotiating foreign-ownership caps — especially in sectors where foreign stakes sit below 50% — and removing non-tariff barriers on vehicle safety and emissions standards, import licences, data, medical devices, and pharmaceuticals.
In plain terms = Washington's message is: signing a text is not enough — Vietnam must make substantive market-access concessions before the U.S. will move forward.
How large is Vietnam's trade surplus — and why does it alarm the U.S.?
In the first nine months of this year, Vietnam's surplus with the U.S. hit $122.6 billion, up 24% year-on-year; the full-year 2025 surplus was $133.9 billion. At this pace, Vietnam is on track to overtake China and Mexico as the largest single source of the U.S. trade deficit.
At the same time, Vietnam's deficit with China widened 43% to $121.5 billion over the same nine months. This means → Vietnam's surplus with the U.S. is ballooning while its imports from China surge — fuelling concern that Chinese goods are being trans-shipped through Vietnam to dodge U.S. tariffs.
This reflects a deeper anxiety: Washington is no longer just watching bilateral numbers — it is asking who is really selling to America through Vietnam.
How heavy is the tariff pressure — and what else is coming?
The U.S. has already imposed a 12.5% tariff on Vietnamese imports under Section 301 (effective July, with some exemptions). American Chamber of Commerce Vice President John Goyer said the effective average rate over the past six months has been 6.5%–7% after exemptions, with roughly 62% of Vietnamese exports entering duty-free.
But Goyer warned: a pending Section 232 review could hit 87% of currently duty-free Vietnamese exports; another Section 301 investigation into manufacturing overcapacity has yet to report; and a separate Section 301 probe on intellectual-property protection could bring additional tariffs.
In plain terms = today's tariff is only the first layer — several more blades are hanging overhead, and if they all fall, Vietnam's duty-free window shrinks dramatically.
Can the deal actually get signed? Where is the real suspense?
Vietnam has submitted its paper, but Washington has not graded it. U.S. officials at the summit focused on "you need to do more," not "we are ready to sign."
This means → the decision rests with the U.S., and every item on Washington's checklist — shrinking the deficit, opening markets, addressing trans-shipment — requires politically difficult concessions inside Vietnam.
This reflects a larger dynamic: the U.S. is applying tariff tools and deal negotiations simultaneously, and Vietnam is caught between maintaining its export access to America and fending off accusations of serving as a back door for Chinese goods.
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