Wall Street Banks See China Business Rebound: JPMorgan Revenue Grows 20% for Two Consecutive Years
nashnova research
Wall Street's top banks are posting their strongest China numbers in years: JPMorgan's China revenue grew 20% for two consecutive years, with a target to double by 2030 — driven not by foreign capital flowing in, but by Chinese companies expanding abroad.
How strong are the numbers across the board?
JPMorgan's China revenue rose 20% for two straight years; the bank aims to double its China business by 2030.
Morgan Stanley has underwritten 11 Chinese equity and equity-linked deals this year, totaling over $1 billion — surpassing its full-year total during the 2021 Hong Kong IPO boom.
Average revenue from Morgan Stanley's top-ten China equity deals jumped from roughly $5 million in 2022 to over $10 million this year, driven by large tech, AI, and healthcare transactions.
UBS posted a 43% year-on-year jump in 2025 China revenue, a record; Goldman Sachs executives say 2025 hit a high-water mark and expect 2027 to stay strong.
Why has "going global" become the new engine?
The core logic of this recovery has flipped: it is no longer about foreign banks entering China, but about serving Chinese companies as they expand worldwide.
BYD, CATL, and ByteDance's overseas pushes are generating bundled demand — equity capital markets, FX, cross-border payments, and liquidity management all at once.
This means → Wall Street's China revenue is increasingly tied to the pace of Chinese corporate globalization, not to the ups and downs of China's domestic market.
JPMorgan's co-country head for China, Alan Ho, predicts "a wave of truly multinational Chinese companies in the next five years," with some eventually earning at least half their revenue overseas.
Citi pivoted to corporate banking — is it working?
Citi exited China retail banking entirely and reoriented around corporate clients. China CEO Wenjie Zhang says he is "at a sweet spot."
Citi's outbound business from Chinese clients is up over 20% year-to-date; flows to Southeast Asia and Europe grew roughly 30%, led by AI and advanced manufacturing.
In plain terms = Citi cut everything consumer-facing and bet all its resources on "helping Chinese companies go abroad" — the numbers so far say that bet is paying off.
Weren't these banks slashing China headcount just two years ago?
In November 2022, dozens of Morgan Stanley's China-focused bankers in Hong Kong were summoned to the 46th floor and watched colleagues get fired and escorted out. Goldman, JPMorgan, and UBS followed with their own rounds of cuts.
At the time, parts of the foreign investment community labeled China "uninvestable."
The reversal is stark: Morgan Stanley bankers pulled consecutive all-nighters this summer; one senior banker spent an entire vacation pricing a major Chinese tech equity deal.
This reflects a swing from survival-mode layoffs to full-capacity overload in under three years.
Where does the Wall Street–Beijing political relationship stand?
Citi CEO Jane Fraser and Goldman CEO David Solomon joined President Trump's delegation to Beijing in May, attending a summit at the Great Hall of the People and meeting senior Chinese officials.
UBS was invited to host a half-day session at last month's Beijing Financial Street Forum — only its second time receiving the honor, a rare distinction for a foreign bank.
This means → the China rebound is not just commercial; it now carries political endorsement from both sides — something almost unthinkable in 2022.
Can this rebound last?
Two variables matter most: whether Chinese companies sustain their pace of overseas expansion, and whether domestic consumer confidence genuinely recovers.
Citi has explicitly named weak Chinese consumption as a current drag on its business.
In plain terms = the "going global" leg is solid right now, but the "domestic demand" leg is still limping — growth that relies on only one leg is an open question.
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