Wall Street's First Institutional Coverage on SpaceX, Price Target Up to $190
Miles Bennett
Ahead of SpaceX's Friday Nasdaq debut, two independent research firms have issued the first coverage reports — Oppenheimer's $190 target prices the stock 40% above the $135 IPO price. This means → Wall Street's initial pricing consensus starts well above the offering price from day one.
Why are these two firms first to publish?
Major underwriting banks that handled the SpaceX IPO are bound by a quiet period — they cannot publish research until after the listing closes.
Oppenheimer and New Street Research were not part of the underwriting syndicate, so no quiet-period restriction applies.
This means → these two reports are the only independent pricing references available right now; the big banks' views will arrive after the stock begins trading.
What is Oppenheimer's case for $190?
Analyst Timothy Horan rates SpaceX outperform with a 12-to-18-month target of $190 — a 40% premium to the $135 IPO price.
His core thesis: SpaceX is "the only vertically integrated AI company with the capital, data, large language models, hardware, manufacturing, and engineering talent all under one roof."
In plain terms = Horan's argument is that other AI players must stitch together partners for each piece of the stack; SpaceX owns the full chain from rockets to satellites to data — a model that is extremely hard to replicate in space.
He flags near-term volatility but expects the stock to trade higher in early sessions.
How does New Street arrive at $165?
Analyst Pierre Ferragu sets a 12-month target of $165 — 22% above the IPO price — but does not assign a stock rating.
He forecasts SpaceX revenue growing from $18.7 billion in 2025 to $195 billion by 2030, with net profitability arriving in 2027 — the company currently posts a 2025 net loss of $4.9 billion.
This means → Ferragu sees SpaceX in a classic "burn cash now, scale later" phase — profitable in two years, revenue up tenfold in five.
What does the most optimistic scenario look like?
Ferragu estimates SpaceX could reach a $2.3 trillion valuation by 2027.
Bull case: if the total space market hits high-end forecasts and SpaceX captures 50% market share, fair value rises to $330 per share — nearly 2.5× the IPO price.
His base case, however, uses conservative market-growth assumptions. Put simply = $330 is the ceiling if everything breaks right, not the number he is actually betting on.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.