Waller: AI Has Not Triggered Mass Layoffs, Productivity Has Improved
Alina Collins
Fed Governor Kevin Warsh told Congress that AI has not caused mass job losses and has actually lifted worker productivity — but he admitted the technology is spreading far faster than he predicted, and the endgame remains unclear.
What has AI actually done to jobs so far?
Warsh cited recent months of data showing AI has not triggered large-scale layoffs; worker productivity has risen instead.
He framed AI as a supply shock — an external force that expands the economy's total output capacity, like a technology revolution or an energy breakthrough.
This means → in Warsh's framework, AI is currently "growing the pie," not taking jobs away.
What does "super Moore's Law" mean?
Warsh said AI is advancing at exponential speed, producing something like a "super Moore's Law" effect.
In plain terms = Moore's Law says chip transistor counts double roughly every two years; Warsh is saying AI is outpacing even that.
He conceded the pace is "much faster" than he forecast a year and a half to two years ago — even policymakers keep having to revise their expectations upward.
How secure is America's lead?
Warsh said the U.S. holds the most favorable position in the current AI race.
But he immediately added: "I don't want to suggest that we know exactly how this is going to turn out."
This reflects a policymaker hedging even his most optimistic call — the speed is too high and the endgame too uncertain for anyone to claim certainty.
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