Wedbush: Google's Potential Shift to MediaTek for TPU Supply Would Materially Undermine Broadcom's Custom ASIC Position
N.R. Finch
Wedbush analyst Bryson warns that if Google hands its 9th-gen TPU design to MediaTek, it would materially shake Broadcom's dominance in custom ASICs and create significant upside for MediaTek's 2028 earnings.
What actually happened?
Taiwan's *Commercial Times* reported that Google plans to shift design work for its 9th-gen TPU (codenamed Triggerfish) from Broadcom to MediaTek, possibly as early as 2028.
The trigger: Broadcom's delays on its 448G SERDES technology — a high-speed data transmission interface — may have prompted the supplier switch.
Broadcom shares fell more than 3% on Tuesday; they were flat in Wednesday pre-market. Google, Broadcom, and MediaTek all declined to comment.
What does this mean for Broadcom?
Broadcom is currently Google's core TPU design partner and the dominant player in custom ASICs — chips designed to a client's exact specifications.
This means → if Google actually switches, the market's central thesis that Broadcom holds a structural edge over peers in custom ASICs gets directly challenged.
In plain terms = one of Broadcom's biggest selling points is deep client lock-in. Losing the Google account isn't just lost revenue — it loosens the anchor of the entire valuation story.
Can MediaTek handle this?
Wedbush says that if the report is accurate, MediaTek's entry into Google's supply chain would accelerate sharply, creating significant upside for its 2028 earnings outlook.
This reflects MediaTek's broader pivot from a mobile-chip company toward an AI compute supplier — a shift now backed by a potential real order, not just strategy decks.
One caveat: the report remains unconfirmed by all parties. Wedbush itself stresses it "cannot determine whether the information is accurate."
What other variables are worth watching?
Google's 8th-gen TPU launched in April this year. The supplier outcome for gen 9 is now a key variable the market will track closely.
A separate data point: Google's 10th-gen TPU memory I/O die — the component that moves data between the chip and its memory — may be manufactured by Samsung, partly because TSMC capacity is constrained.
This means → Google is actively diversifying its supply chain. Its single-source reliance on both Broadcom and TSMC is being deliberately reduced.
Why does this report actually matter?
Wedbush's real significance isn't the scoop — it's that the firm formally incorporated the MediaTek-replaces-Broadcom narrative into its risk assessment framework.
In plain terms = before this, the story was "unverified rumor." Now a mainstream broker says publicly, "if true, the impact is material" — and that alone shifts the starting point of the market conversation.
This reflects a competitive landscape in custom ASICs that is moving from "Broadcom dominates alone" toward "multi-supplier contestation" — and that shift is just beginning.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.