World Cup Kickoff Ignites Prediction Markets; Bernstein Forecasts Over $3 Billion in New Trading Volume
Alina Collins
The 2026 FIFA World Cup opens today in North America. Bernstein calls it the biggest single traffic catalyst prediction markets have ever faced, projecting over $3 billion in incremental trading volume — an industry trying to prove it can thrive beyond election season.
Why is the World Cup a make-or-break test for prediction markets?
Prediction markets — platforms where users trade contracts tied to real-world outcomes, with prices reflecting implied probabilities — broke through in 2024 on the back of the U.S. presidential election and became a go-to tool for tracking political odds.
This means → the industry's growth story is currently tied to election cycles. The World Cup is its chance to prove it can grow independently of political events.
This tournament fields 48 teams and 104 matches, roughly 60% more tradeable contracts than a standard World Cup, landing in June–July when online sports betting is traditionally slow. In plain terms = high match density, few competitors — the best window for prediction markets to grab new users.
Bernstein's math: where does the money come from?
Bernstein estimates the World Cup will generate over $3 billion in incremental trading volume for the industry, plus $5–10 billion in consumer transaction uplift.
The bigger picture: Bernstein previously forecast total industry trading volume rising from roughly $51 billion in 2025 to $240 billion in 2026 and $1 trillion by 2030, with annualized revenue jumping from about $400 million in 2025 to $2.5 billion in 2026.
This means → the World Cup's $3 billion increment is modest on its own, but it is the first real proof point for whether sporting events can drive volume the way elections did. If it works, the growth curve behind it holds up.
Why is DraftKings singled out as the biggest winner?
Bernstein names DraftKings the clearest overall winner of this World Cup. The core reason: its prediction-market product is the only legal sports product it can offer in California, Texas, and Florida.
In plain terms = traditional online sports betting is illegal in those three states, but prediction markets are not — DraftKings faces no competition there. The three states hold 52% of the U.S. Latino population, a group where traditional sports-betting penetration runs at just 0.69× the industry average.
Bernstein estimates the World Cup window could deliver roughly 650,000 new funded accounts for DraftKings, with total prediction-market accounts reaching about 2 million by year-end. Its Telemundo media partnership and Spanish-native app are seen as the sharpest acquisition channels into the Latino user base.
What are Robinhood and Coinbase chasing?
Robinhood timed the World Cup opener to launch its own exchange, Rothera — a joint venture with Susquehanna, holding a CFTC license — aiming to recapture exchange economics and cut user fees. Platform contract volume hit roughly 12 billion for all of 2025; by May 2026 it had already reached about 16 billion.
Bernstein expects prediction markets to be Robinhood's largest single incremental revenue source this year, with annualized revenue reaching roughly $586 million by year-end — up 286% year-over-year, accounting for about 17% of its trading revenue.
Coinbase moved even faster — within two months of launch, by March this year, its prediction-market annualized revenue crossed $100 million, one of the fastest-growing product lines in company history. It offers World Cup contracts through a partnership with Kalshi, aiming to pull non-crypto-native users onto the platform and reduce dependence on cyclical crypto revenue.
What does the competitive landscape look like now?
May prediction-market total trading volume hit roughly $31.2 billion, up about 5% month-over-month. Kalshi grew 21% MoM to $17.9 billion, lifting its market share to about 57%; Polymarket fell 14.8% to $7.1 billion over the same period.
This reflects a shift: licensed, regulated platforms (Kalshi holds a CFTC license) are taking share from crypto-native platforms — mainstream users drawn in by the World Cup lean toward regulated venues.
Bernstein frames prediction markets as "TikTok, not Napster" — a complement to traditional sports betting, not a replacement, built to coexist long-term rather than disrupt. Put simply = the industry is going after incremental demand, not trying to kill the incumbents.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.