World Gold Council: 84% of Central Banks Expect Gold's Share of Reserves to Rise Within Five Years
Taylor Wilson
A new World Gold Council survey shows 84% of central banks expect gold's share of global reserves to keep rising over five years, while 74% see the dollar's share falling — the global reserve system is tilting from dollar dominance toward gold at an accelerating pace.
What does this survey actually say?
The survey covered 76 central banks between February and May 2026; most responses arrived after the Middle East conflict escalated.
84% expect gold's reserve share to rise within five years, up from 76% last year; 74% expect the dollar's share to fall over the same period.
This means → central banks are not just buying gold — they are collectively revising their long-term view of reserve structure. The dollar's decline is no longer a minority call.
How did gold overtake U.S. Treasuries?
Gold surpassed U.S. Treasuries at the end of 2025 to become the world's single largest reserve asset, accounting for 27% of total global reserves.
Dollar-denominated assets (Treasuries and others) still lead at 42%, but most central banks now acknowledge the long-term downtrend.
In plain terms = gold has moved from "insurance at the bottom of the drawer" to "the biggest single item in the reserve cabinet." The dollar's total share is still larger, but its edge is eroding bit by bit.
Why are countries rushing to bring their gold home?
Shaokai Fan, head of central-bank business at the World Gold Council, cited geopolitical concerns and worries about guaranteed access to gold as the core drivers.
France is the most striking case: the Banque de France withdrew 129 tonnes from the New York Fed between July 2025 and January 2026, exploiting a U.S. tariff-driven premium to net €11 billion in profit.
India sharply cut its overseas holdings too — the offshore share fell from 55% in March 2023 to 22% in March 2026, with most gold repatriated from the Bank of England and the BIS (Bank for International Settlements).
This reflects a deeper shift: central banks no longer ask only "how much gold to buy" but "whose vault holds our gold" — custody itself has become a core variable in reserve security.
Are London and New York losing their grip?
The share of surveyed banks holding gold at the Bank of England fell from 64% to 57%; at the New York Fed, from 17% to 14%.
Yet London remains the world's largest custodian of central-bank gold. Holdings rose 8.6% year-on-year through May 2026, and daily turnover exceeds $200 billion.
In plain terms = fewer clients, but a fuller warehouse — those who stayed are adding positions, and London's trading depth has no near-term substitute.
Who is competing to become the next gold hub?
Singapore's deputy prime minister announced the launch of an OTC gold clearing system and central-bank gold custody service this year, aiming to position the city-state as an Asian gold trading center.
Hong Kong is also actively courting central-bank custody business, setting up a direct contest with Singapore.
This means → gold storage is shifting from a London–New York duopoly toward a multi-hub model. The rise of Asian nodes is the infrastructure-level extension of the de-dollarization trend.
Will central banks keep buying?
45% plan to add gold in the next 12 months — a record high, up from 43% last year. Roughly 90% expect global central-bank gold holdings to keep rising.
Emerging-market central banks are the main buyers; only 18% of advanced-economy banks share that intent.
Spot gold dipped to $3,031 per ounce earlier this month, well below the year-opening high above $5,500; prices rebounded past $3,300 after the U.S.–Iran deal.
Fan noted that during the April IMF meetings, "central-bank interest in gold was even higher than last year — many had been waiting for a price pullback to buy."
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