Zeiss: China's EUV Lithography Development Lags About 15 Years Behind
nashnova research
Zeiss, the sole optics supplier for EUV lithography machines, says China needs about 15 years to develop its own EUV capability — aligning with UBS's "at least a decade" estimate and underscoring a structural bottleneck in China's advanced chipmaking ambitions.
Where does the "15 years" figure come from?
Frank Rohmund, head of Zeiss's semiconductor division, told Bloomberg TV that China developing its own EUV lithography machine — the tool that uses extreme-ultraviolet light to etch the most advanced chip circuits — would "reasonably" take about 15 years.
UBS analysts reached a similar conclusion this week: at least ten years.
This means → two independent sources — a core supply-chain company and a top-tier investment bank — place China's EUV gap in the same order of magnitude, ten to fifteen years. This is not one party's guess; it is a consensus range across the value chain.
How critical is Zeiss in the EUV supply chain?
Zeiss is the exclusive supplier of optical systems for ASML's EUV machines; ASML is the world's only EUV equipment maker.
In plain terms = there is one company on Earth that builds EUV machines, and its core optics come from exactly one supplier. A monopoly inside a monopoly.
Zeiss says its optical components are used to produce roughly 80% of the world's chips. In 2017 Zeiss sold a minority stake in its semiconductor division to ASML for €1 billion (~$1.2 billion), tying the two firms even closer.
What does China's DUV progress actually show?
The Information reported in July that a Shanghai-based company can now produce immersion DUV lithography equipment — DUV being the generation below EUV, less precise but still capable of manufacturing mature-node chips.
Rohmund's response was blunt: China has worked on DUV for decades, "it's not surprising," but what matters is the actual capability of these machines. He added: "We are still far ahead."
This reflects a key distinction — a DUV breakthrough does not mean EUV is close. The gap between the two generations is precisely what that "15 years" measures.
Why does Zeiss oppose broader export controls?
Rohmund explicitly opposed extending controls to legacy DUV equipment, arguing: "It will only accelerate China's own innovation."
China is one of ASML's major markets for older-generation DUV tools; the U.S. already requires export licenses for some high-end immersion DUV models.
This means → Zeiss's position is clear — restricting the most advanced EUV is acceptable, but banning mature-node equipment sacrifices revenue and pushes the competitor toward self-reliance faster. A lose-lose, in their view.
What is Zeiss doing to prepare?
Zeiss is expanding production facilities at its Oberkochen headquarters in Germany and building a new factory at another site to meet AI-driven chip demand growth.
In plain terms = Zeiss is betting that EUV demand keeps rising — not worrying that China will catch up soon. The expansion is the most concrete footnote to "15 years ahead."
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