Zelensky Announces Resumption of Strikes on Russian Refineries; Iran War Pushes Oil Prices Higher Through 2028
nashnova research
Zelenskyy declared Ukraine will resume strikes on Russian refineries, ending a two-day energy ceasefire; meanwhile, the Iran war has driven Brent long-dated futures to record highs, with diesel breaching $1,000 per metric ton — markets are now pricing sustained high oil through 2028.
Why did the energy ceasefire last only two days?
Zelenskyy told the Financial Times plainly: "The blockade is lifted. We are done." Ukraine will resume strikes on Russian refineries.
During the pause, the U.S. cut off ballistic-missile early-warning intelligence to Ukraine, and Starlink — Elon Musk's satellite service — was throttled nationwide, severely degrading frontline operations and medium-range strike capability.
Zelenskyy rejected any technical explanation: "This is not a technical issue — it is will." This means → the ceasefire was a pressure game played with intelligence and communications as leverage, and Ukraine concluded the cost far outweighed any benefit.
What would it take for Zelenskyy to stop?
He criticized Washington's rush to cut commercial deals with Moscow and expressed frustration at Trump's visible closeness to Putin.
His minimum demand is specific: more U.S.-made Patriot interceptor missiles. In plain terms = if Washington wants Ukraine to stop hitting Russian energy infrastructure, it must first close the air-defense gap — otherwise Ukraine would rather weaken Russia's revenue stream on its own.
How has the Iran war rewritten the long-term oil price logic?
The Iran war is now nearly eight months old. The Brent December 2027 contract has risen more than 13% since early September to $86 per barrel — a record for that contract.
The IEA forecasts global oil supply will reach 108.3 million barrels per day by 2027, against demand of roughly 104.4 million — a comfortable surplus on paper. Yet long-dated futures keep climbing, signaling investors do not believe that supply will actually come back on schedule.
This reflects a fundamental shift in the market's core assumption: the current supply disruption is not a short-term shock but may become the new normal.
How much has it cost to ship oil out of the Strait of Hormuz?
U.S. Navy escorts have brought transit flows close to pre-war levels, but Iran intensified attacks on vessels over the past week and threatened further disruption.
Yemen's Houthi forces recently launched missiles and drones at Saudi Aramco's Dhahran headquarters, spreading the conflict beyond the Gulf itself.
Logistics, freight, insurance, and military-escort costs to move one barrel of crude out of the Gulf now account for nearly one-third of total cost — up from just 3% before the war. This means → even if oil fields pump normally, the transport layer alone has added a massive premium to every barrel.
Why is diesel more worrying than crude?
European benchmark diesel futures hit a record $1,480 per metric ton (roughly $210 per barrel) in mid-September, driven by the double hit of Middle East supply disruptions and damaged Russian refining capacity.
Trump announced a deal last week allowing Russia to resume some diesel exports, but Reuters calculates the extra volume equals only about 12 hours of global supply — the market was unimpressed.
The diesel December 2027 contract breached $1,000 per metric ton this week for the first time; the pre-war level was $644. In plain terms = diesel powers the world's trucks, ships, factories, and farms — its price rises ripple through the economy more broadly and deeply than crude itself, which is exactly why the market is extending its high-oil-price bet all the way to 2028.
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