Zhipu and MiniMax are expected to enter the Hang Seng Tech Index, with southern capital possibly flooding in

China's two popular artificial intelligence stocks, ZhiPu and MiniMax Group, are expected to be included in the Hang Seng Technology Index and Composite Index during Hang Seng Indexes Company's quarterly review on Friday. Since their listing in January of this year, both stocks have accumulated a growth of over 300%.

Bloomberg Intelligence analysts estimate that if ZhiPu is selected, it could attract southbound capital purchases ranging from HKD 51 billion to 92 billion (approximately USD 6.6 billion to 11.8 billion), while MiniMax could attract up to HKD 47 billion of inflows. "Over time, southbound demand may become a key support force, as the A-share market has almost no pure AI large-scale model targets," said Liao Kaiming. He pointed out that mainland investors typically hold 11% to 20% of Hong Kong technology stocks through the Stock Connect mechanism, and both companies may attract a similar scale of capital inflows.

In terms of the inclusion timeline, if approved, ZhiPu could officially enter the Hong Kong-listed shares under the fast-inclusion rule as early as June 8; MiniMax, which uses a weighted voting rights structure, must meet stricter criteria and is expected to be eligible no earlier than August. Bloomberg Intelligence estimates that the combined weight of the two will account for about 9% of the Hang Seng Technology Index, coupled with approximately USD 4 billion in passive buying of exchange-traded funds, which is expected to hedge potential selling pressure before the lock-up expiration in July.

The lock-up pressure is currently a key risk variable of concern for investors. According to HSBC Holdings, MiniMax currently has only 5% of shares freely tradable, with 65% to be unlocked in July; ZhiPu has about 6% of shares to be unlocked in July, with an additional 40% to be released in January of next year. Smartkarma analyst Brian Freitas said: "The first lock-up expiration in July will significantly increase the free float proportion, and the lock-up wave in January will bring more index inclusion opportunities and incremental capital then."

Additionally, according to Mizuho Securities analyst Willer Chen, BeiGene, Ltd., Ke Holdings, Zhaojin Mining Industry, and Yum China are also expected to be included in the Hang Seng Index during this review, while Acon Biotech may join the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Xinyi Solar might be removed.