First, diagnose the urge to sell
Most "should I sell?" questions are not just about the stock. They also involve position size, emotion, and discipline. Are you protecting a large gain, waiting to break even, or reacting to uncomfortable volatility? Has the thesis changed? Each situation calls for a different response.
The Sell Decision Assistant unpacks that layer first, then returns to the company, the price, and the position itself. Its goal isn't to predict tomorrow's move — it's to make sure you know exactly what you're betting on by continuing to hold.
Separate a good company from a good position
A great company may not deserve a full position at today's price, and a falling stock is not automatically a sell. The better questions are how much optimism is priced in, what drove your returns, and whether the position can survive another volatile stretch.
- Review the original thesisCheck whether your original reason for buying remains intact, has played out, or has been invalidated by new evidence.
- Trace the source of returnsSeparate company-specific performance from a broader sector or market tailwind.
- Assess the cost of holdingUse position size, upcoming events, and downside scenarios to understand how much risk the position adds to the portfolio.
Build a sell decision framework
- 01
One-line diagnosis
It starts by naming the real problem: a broken thesis, an oversized position, a stretched valuation — or just the fear of giving back profits.
- 02
Thesis review
It revisits the original thesis and classifies it as intact, played out, or broken by new evidence.
- 03
Position tolerance
No hand-waving about risk appetite. The question is: if this position keeps swinging, can you avoid being forced to sell at the worst possible moment?
- 04
Decision options
It compares holding, trimming, and exiting, then identifies the evidence that would change the assessment and the signals to watch next.
When to use it
Use it when you are sitting on large gains, waiting to break even, worried about an oversized position, or unsure whether to hold through earnings. It turns an emotional decision into a repeatable process.
It will not make the decision for you or rely on a precise price forecast. Instead, it reviews the thesis, expectations, position size, available options, and the conditions that would change the assessment.