12 Chinese Automakers Post Over ¥11.2 Billion in Net FX Losses in H1
nashnova research
Twelve Chinese listed automakers booked a combined ¥11.2 billion net forex loss in the first half — versus ¥17.3 billion in gains a year earlier. The swing: nearly ¥28.5 billion on the P&L. The faster they export, the bigger the currency bill.
¥11.2 billion in losses — who took the hit?
Four top exporters absorbed the bulk: BYD ¥4.7 bn, Chery ¥2.1 bn, SAIC ¥1.9 bn, Geely ¥670 mn — together over ¥9.4 billion, more than 80% of the total.
This means → FX losses are not spread evenly across the industry. The bigger the overseas book, the harder the blow.
A year ago these same companies collectively booked ¥17.3 billion in FX gains. One reversal in the renminbi's direction flipped the entire line item.
Operating profits are rising — so why are reported earnings falling?
Chery's overseas revenue hit ¥99 billion, up 51% YoY; passenger-car gross margin rose from 12.4% to 15.6%. The core business is improving.
Yet net profit attributable to shareholders fell 11.7% — because FX swung from a ¥3.4 bn gain to a ¥2.1 bn loss, erasing ¥5.5 billion of profit room.
In plain terms = the cars sold better and earned more per unit, but a currency move wiped it off the bottom line. Operating profit and reported profit are pulling in opposite directions.
BYD, SAIC, and Geely show the same pattern: gross margins up, reported earnings dragged by FX. SAIC says stripping out FX and impairments, core profit rose 72% YoY; Geely's core net profit was up 46%.
Are automakers hedging? Why isn't it working?
Great Wall Motor (长城汽车) offers the clearest read: of ¥423 mn in FX losses, derivatives offset about ¥157 mn — a roughly 30% coverage rate.
BYD's hedging gains were only ¥481 mn against ¥4.7 bn in FX losses — a drop in the bucket.
SAIC was approved for up to $8.5 billion in FX derivatives but used only $1.3 billion. Seres (赛力斯) was approved for ¥5 bn in hedging capacity but executed zero trades. Leapmotor and XPeng are just getting started.
This means → the toolbox exists, but most automakers haven't opened it yet. UBS's Gong Min notes there is no single optimal hedge ratio for all companies — what matters is whether profit and cash-flow volatility actually declines.
Exports are booming — why does that make FX losses worse?
China exported 5.1 million vehicles in H1, up 65% YoY; NEV exports hit 2.36 million, doubling year-on-year.
But automakers still mostly procure and produce in China, paying costs in renminbi and collecting revenue in euros, Brazilian reais, and other currencies.
In plain terms = revenue comes in foreign currency, costs go out in renminbi. When the renminbi strengthens, foreign-currency revenue shrinks when converted back. The more you export, the more you're exposed.
UBS estimates BYD's overseas gross profit per vehicle is roughly ¥46,000 versus ¥24,000 domestically — the more overseas profit matters, the more visible the FX erosion.
Can localization fix this — and how far along is it?
Chery took over a plant in Rosslyn, South Africa this year, targeting mid-2027 production start and a 40% localization rate by 2028.
This reflects a fundamental logic: when revenue and costs are in the same currency, FX moves cancel out locally first — headquarters only has to manage the residual net exposure.
A finance executive at a leading automaker confirmed the company is raising the share of costs denominated in local currencies at overseas production bases.
In plain terms = whether localization can keep pace with export growth will determine if this ¥11.2 billion is a one-time growing pain — or a structural drag that repeats year after year.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。