After Record Foreign Inflows into A-Shares, UBS Expects Buying Pace to Slow in H2
nashnova research
Foreign holdings of A-shares topped RMB 4.4 trillion — an all-time high — but UBS strategist Meng Lei expects the buying pace to slow in the second half as macro headwinds weigh on appetite.
How much did foreign investors actually buy?
By the end of Q2, offshore investors held over RMB 4.4 trillion in A-shares, a historic record.
Within that, QFII — Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor, a licensed channel for direct A-share access — holdings surged 87% from year-end to RMB 272.6 billion, per Wind data.
This means → the first half was not a tentative dip-buy; it was a concentrated bet on mainland equities.
Where did the money go?
QFII inflows concentrated in AI supply-chain and green-energy names, according to Wind.
At UBS's annual A-share strategy conference in Shenzhen, strategist Meng Lei pointed to "the tech narrative and A-shares' unique, self-sufficient industrial chain" as the core draw.
In plain terms = global investors are paying for something hard to replicate elsewhere: China's full upstream-to-downstream chain in AI and clean energy.
Why does UBS expect the pace to slow?
Meng stated clearly: "We still expect net inflows in the second half, but the buying pace will moderate relative to H1."
The core basis for this call: multiple macro headwinds are capping foreign willingness to add further exposure.
This means → UBS is not calling a reversal. It sees foreign capital shifting from an H1 sprint to an H2 walk — same direction, slower speed.
What does this signal for investors?
Whether H1's record pace can continue depends, in UBS's view, on how the macro environment evolves.
The report did not detail the specific headwinds, but the judgment itself is telling: even with a broadly positive view on A-shares, short-term pace remains hostage to the macro cycle.
This reflects a deeper shift: the foreign-capital debate on A-shares has moved from "whether to buy" to "how fast" — directional consensus has formed; the only disagreement is on tempo.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。