AI Earnings Plus Waller's Dovish Pivot Ignite Broad Rally in High-Beta U.S. Stocks
nashnova research
All three U.S. indices rose over 1% on September 3 as blowout AI earnings and a dovish shift from Fed Governor Waller converged, sending high-beta growth and crypto stocks surging — yet Broadcom's post-beat sell-off signals that the bar for AI trades keeps rising.
How strong were Dell's and Snowflake's numbers?
Dell posted Q2 revenue of $47 billion, up 58% year-over-year. AI-optimized server revenue hit $16.4 billion — doubling — with a record $60.9 billion in AI server orders and a $95 billion backlog. The company raised its FY2027 revenue guide from $167 billion to $192 billion.
This means → AI hardware demand is not peaking — orders are still accelerating. Dell rallied roughly 25% from its pre-earnings level.
Snowflake reported product revenue of $1.49 billion, up 37%, beating estimates. CEO Sridhar Ramaswamy said AI accounted for about half of the recent growth acceleration. At least 34 brokerages raised their price targets; the stock surged as much as 26% intraday.
In plain terms = a hardware company (Dell) and a software company (Snowflake) both delivered AI-driven beats at the same time. The market's read: AI monetization is no longer an Nvidia-only story.
What did Waller say, and why did the market care so much?
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that if August inflation continues June and July's improving trend, he would lean toward holding rates steady. He would only consider supporting a hike if inflation rebounds meaningfully.
Nick Timiraos — often called the "Fed whisperer" — noted a subtle shift: Waller had previously leaned hawkish on inflation risk, but his latest remarks struck a more optimistic tone, partly offsetting the hawkish signal from Jackson Hole.
This means → Market pricing moved fast: the implied probability of a 25-bp September hike dropped from nearly 70% to about 50%. The 10-year Treasury yield eased from close to 4.8% to around 4.75%.
In plain terms = rate-hike pressure eased temporarily, and the valuation case for high-growth stocks regained footing.
Where did the money go — how did the high-beta trade spread?
Crypto-linked stocks led the charge: Robinhood surged nearly 17%, Strategy rose 15.4%, Coinbase gained 11.9%, and Bitcoin climbed back near $80,000.
Tesla rose nearly 7.6% (amplified by its Cybercab launch event that day), Meta gained roughly 4.5%, and Nvidia added about 2.7%. Software names followed: ServiceNow +7.5%, Salesforce +4.4%, Adobe nearly +4.8%.
Bloom Energy rallied over 9.7% on the AI-datacenter power-bottleneck thesis: the faster AI compute infrastructure expands, the wider the gap in stable power supply — and on-site fuel-cell generation is seen as a potential beneficiary.
Broadcom's numbers were great — so why did it fall?
Broadcom's fiscal Q3 revenue came in at roughly $29.6 billion, up 86% year-over-year. AI semiconductor revenue reached $16.7 billion — up 221% YoY and 54% quarter-over-quarter — a clear beat.
But Q4 revenue guidance of about $34.8 billion fell short of the Street's ~$35 billion estimate. Q4 AI revenue guidance of roughly $21.7 billion only edged past expectations. The stock dropped as much as 6.8% intraday before closing down less than 3%.
This reflects a structural shift in AI trades: for core AI names already on elevated valuations, beating expectations alone is no longer enough — the market demands stronger forward guidance and higher growth certainty.
What comes next?
Waller's dovish remarks were just a catalyst. The real determinants for the Fed's September decision are two data points: Friday's August nonfarm payrolls and the August CPI release on September 11.
This means → Whether this optimism window stays open depends on whether inflation data actually keeps improving — if August CPI rebounds, Waller's dovish room shrinks immediately.
In plain terms = the market is betting on a "rates have peaked" narrative, but the bet hasn't settled and the proof is still on the way.
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