Analyst: AI Has Not Weakened Google Search, Market Share Rises to 78%
nashnova research
Evercore ISI analyst Mark Mahaney's latest survey shows 78% of users still pick Google as their primary search engine, rebounding from earlier lows; he raised his Alphabet price target to $450, implying roughly 30% upside.
Has AI actually stolen Google's search share?
In the August survey, 78% of respondents named Google their primary search engine — a clear rebound from the 2024-to-early-2025 trough.
ChatGPT's primary-search penetration has slipped from a peak of 13% in August 2025 to 10%, largely stalling since May.
This means → The "AI replaces search" narrative is cooling; Google's moat runs deeper than the market assumed.
After adopting AI, do people search more or less?
60% of respondents said they search more after adopting AI tools; only 8% said less.
In plain terms = AI isn't replacing search — it's creating more of it. Users ask AI, then turn to Google to verify or dig deeper.
Mahaney argues that embedding AI into search has driven "material new query growth" for Google while giving advertisers higher-converting commercial leads.
Is Google's grip on "money searches" still solid?
Across flights, hotels, local services, vacation planning, restaurants, and travel — all high-frequency commercial queries — Google remains the first-choice entry point.
This advantage holds across every age group, with no visible gap where younger users defect to AI tools.
This reflects a key insight: the real barrier in commercial search isn't technological edge — it's merchant coverage and user habit, the assets hardest to replicate.
How far has Gemini closed the gap with ChatGPT?
The user-preference gap between Gemini and ChatGPT has narrowed to just 3 percentage points — the smallest on record.
For context, that gap stood at 11 percentage points in August 2024.
This means → Google's AI product is closing the perception gap fast. If the next-generation Gemini model outperforms rivals, it becomes a major catalyst for the stock.
A $450 price target — what is the analyst betting on?
Mahaney raised his Alphabet target from $420 to $450, implying roughly 30% upside from Thursday's closing price of $345.23.
Beyond search itself, he flagged three growth drivers: the Gemini app ecosystem, external sales of Google's custom chips, and Waymo's autonomous-driving business.
Put simply = The analyst believes the market is still discounting Google on an "AI threat" thesis — but the data suggest that discount has been overdone.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。