Analyst Ratings Diverge After Earnings: Morgan Stanley Cuts JD.com Price Target
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JD.com's Q2 revenue of RMB 346.4 billion beat consensus but fell 2.9% year-on-year; three major banks now span the full range from underweight to buy, with the core dispute hinging on new-business losses and whether retail growth can turn positive in H2.
Was this a good quarter or a bad one?
Q2 revenue hit RMB 346.4 billion, down 2.9% year-on-year but above the RMB 342.1 billion consensus — revenue is shrinking, just slower than feared.
Adjusted EPS came in at RMB 6.29, beating the RMB 5.40 estimate; adjusted EBITDA — pre-tax, pre-interest profit that strips out depreciation — jumped from RMB 3 billion a year ago to RMB 7.9 billion.
This means → JD delivered "falling revenue, rising profit," driven by operational efficiency gains, not by selling more.
Why are three banks so far apart?
Morgan Stanley is the most bearish: maintains underweight, cuts target from $27 to $25 — citing slow narrowing of food-delivery losses, expanding losses from Joybuy (JD's cross-border e-commerce arm), rising AI spending, and weak consumption clouding H2 earnings.
Susquehanna sits in the middle: maintains neutral, cuts target from $35 to $30 — acknowledges JD's solid position in large-scale e-commerce but says macro uncertainty and the current investment cycle keep it sidelined.
Bank of America is the most bullish: reiterates buy with a $38 target — argues the 7% post-earnings drop reflects an expectations reset, not a fundamental execution problem.
What is the real dispute about?
The bears focus on spending: new businesses — food delivery, Joybuy, AI — are still loss-making, and consumer demand is soft, so the money going out may not come back.
The bulls focus on trajectory: core retail growth should turn positive in H2 as base effects fade, and new-business losses are already narrowing.
In plain terms = one side says "the wallet is thinning," the other says "the worst is already behind us" — the H2 retail numbers will decide who is right.
What does this mean for investors?
Target prices range from $25 to $38 — a 52% spread — which itself signals the market has no consensus on how to price JD.
Bank of America flags that full-year guidance is unchanged even as market expectations have crept higher. This means → even decent execution could disappoint if the bar has already moved up.
Whether JD's retail segment returns to positive growth in H2 is the key checkpoint for both the bull and the bear case — until then, expect the stock to stay volatile.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.