Analyst: Robinhood's Prediction Market Revenue Expected to Surpass Crypto Business
Miles Bennett
Bernstein and Piper Sandler both expect Robinhood's prediction-market revenue to surpass crypto trading as early as Q2 this year, signaling a shift from meme-coin brokerage to event-driven exchange.
Two banks call the crossover — what's behind it?
Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani says Q2 ending June could be the first quarter prediction-market revenue exceeds crypto trading revenue.
Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley's model reaches a similar conclusion: the crossover holds in Q2 and in both remaining quarters this year.
This means → it is not a one-quarter fluke — two firms, modeling independently, point to the same inflection.
Crypto is cooling — what fuels the replacement?
Crypto trading volumes have declined, dragged mainly by Bitcoin falling back to 2024 price levels.
The FIFA World Cup became a key catalyst for prediction markets — platforms where users bet on the outcome of events — sharply lifting user engagement.
Chhugani expects a modest pullback after the World Cup ends but argues the market may be overlooking a "generational platform shift" under way.
In plain terms = crypto revenue rises and falls with coin prices; prediction-market revenue is driven by event supply — as long as there are matches, elections, or headlines, there is trading.
How aggressive are the growth numbers?
Chhugani projects prediction-market revenue reaching $1.7 billion by 2028, up 64% from 2026.
The growth engine is Rothera — Robinhood's own prediction-market exchange, which began taking bets in May this year.
Prediction markets, perpetual futures, and Robinhood Chain together are forecast to account for 18% of 2027 estimated revenue and 23% of 2028.
This means → by 2028, nearly a quarter of revenue comes from business lines that barely existed two years earlier — an engine swap, not a tune-up.
Where do price targets stand — and why hasn't the stock caught up?
Chhugani raised his target from $130 to $160 — the highest on Wall Street — and kept a buy rating.
Needham analyst John Todaro raised his target from $97 to $123, citing sustained strength across nearly every metric.
Yet Robinhood is still down more than 6% year-to-date; Coinbase is down ~22%, and Gemini has plunged 53% over the same period.
This reflects a gap: the market still prices Robinhood as a crypto-cycle stock, while analysts are already re-rating it as a platform-transition story.
What to watch on July 29?
Robinhood reports Q2 earnings on July 29. Bloomberg consensus expects adjusted profit up ~4% year-over-year and revenue up ~28%.
The key test: whether prediction-market revenue actually overtakes crypto trading revenue this quarter.
In plain terms = analysts have drawn a line — "prediction markets earn more than crypto." When the earnings drop, the market will find out if that line is solid or dotted.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.