Anthropic's Revenue Growth Outpaces OpenAI, Triggering Divergence in Related Supply Chain Stocks
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Anthropic more than doubled its revenue from Q1 to Q2 while OpenAI grew just 18% and saw losses widen — a shift now rippling through supply-chain stocks, with Oracle, CoreWeave, and Broadcom sliding while Google and Amazon stand to gain from Anthropic's compute demand.
How far ahead has Anthropic pulled?
Per the Wall Street Journal, Anthropic's revenue more than doubled quarter-on-quarter from Q1 to Q2. OpenAI managed just 18% growth over the same period.
The profit picture is worse: OpenAI's operating margin deteriorated further from an already negative base, clouding its closely watched IPO prospects.
Reuters reported Anthropic projects revenue of up to $200 billion by 2028, dwarfing the $47 billion annualized run rate it disclosed in May. This means → Anthropic is no longer a challenger — it is scaling into a fundamentally different weight class.
Who in the supply chain is hurting most?
A basket of OpenAI-linked names flagged by Jefferies in late April has slid across the board: Oracle down ~12%, CoreWeave down ~17%, Broadcom down ~13%.
Paul Meeks, head of tech research at Freedom Capital Markets, told CNBC that Oracle faces the greatest threat because its remaining performance obligations — contracted but undelivered revenue — are heavily dominated by OpenAI.
Dan Nathan of RiskReversal Advisors put it more bluntly: Oracle signed a $300 billion cloud deal with OpenAI. "If OpenAI can't scale at the pace it wants, Oracle is under enormous pressure."
Who benefits from Anthropic's rise?
Gil Luria, head of tech research at DA Davidson, noted that Anthropic's compute runs primarily on Google and Amazon infrastructure, using Trainium chips and TPUs rather than Nvidia hardware.
This means → Alphabet and Amazon stand to gain on both the cloud and the chip layer, and Broadcom benefits too as the broader ecosystem expands.
Stock moves over the same period confirm the logic: Nvidia up ~10%, Microsoft up ~18% — neither is a direct Anthropic supplier, but both ride the expansion of total AI demand.
Will OpenAI be sidelined?
Most analysts say no. Yi Fu Lee, managing director at Benchmark, compared the two to "Coke and Pepsi," arguing that models are essentially interchangeable.
Open-weight models reinforce that interchangeability — releases from Moonshot and DeepSeek are cheaper and often match proprietary performance, and multi-model orchestration is increasingly common.
In plain terms = AI is trending toward commodity pricing, and costs will fall as adoption spreads. But in the near term, laggards still face valuation pressure — and Oracle's deep tie to OpenAI is the risk exposure drawing the most attention right now.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.