Apollo Chief Economist: Iran War and Tariffs to Push Treasury Yields Higher
nashnova research
Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok says war and tariffs — not the fiscal deficit — are the real forces driving Treasury yields higher, with high rates squeezing housing but leaving AI investment untouched.
Why are yields still climbing?
Slok attributes the latest rise in Treasury yields to two forces: the Iran conflict and trade-tariff pressure.
This means → the sell-off in bonds is driven by external shocks, not America's own fiscal position.
He noted that markets are actually less worried about U.S. policymaking than about Japan's or Germany's.
The Treasury stepped in — why didn't it work?
Government borrowing costs are rising globally; investors demand higher compensation to hold long-dated debt.
Treasury Secretary Bessent announced a buyback program — the government repurchasing its own bonds to push long-term rates down — but yields kept rebounding.
In plain terms = the government tried to bid prices up, but sellers overwhelmed the bid.
Is the market pricing a hike or a cut?
Bloomberg data show the market now prices a 69% probability of a Fed rate hike at its next meeting in mid-September.
This means → the consensus has flipped from "when do we cut?" to "we may still have to hike" — bondholders face headwinds with no near-term relief.
Who does high rates hurt — and who escapes?
Slok was explicit: rates are restrictive for housing but not for AI investment.
The median U.S. home price has reached $400,000, while most households can afford only about $300,000.
The median age of a first-time buyer rose from 30 in 2008 to 40 today. In plain terms = young Americans now need an extra decade of saving before they can buy a first home.
How bad is the stress signal in real estate?
The delinquency rate on multifamily housing — apartment buildings and similar properties — has hit its highest level since at least 2004, surpassing the post-financial-crisis peak.
This reflects a shift: high rates are no longer just pricing people out of buying — those who already bought are starting to fall behind on payments.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。