Asian Refiners Rush to Buy Middle Eastern Crude as Dubai Futures Approach $100
nashnova research
Indian and Chinese refiners are racing to lock in Middle Eastern crude, pushing Dubai futures close to $100/barrel — the highest since May. Escalating U.S.–Iran tensions and Strait of Hormuz transit risks have tightened the Persian Gulf supply picture sharply.
Who is buying, and what are they buying?
Indian Oil Corp. is leading a wave of spot purchases; Reliance Industries, India's largest private refiner, may follow.
On the Chinese side, PetroChina has bought large Saudi, Iraqi, and UAE cargoes on the spot market; Sinochem has taken delivery of North Sea Forties crude.
South Korean and Japanese buyers have joined the bidding, turning the Persian Gulf market into a multi-country scramble.
Buyers are also sourcing from Brazil, Canada, and Argentina — a sign that regular Middle Eastern supply is no longer enough.
How far have prices moved?
Abu Dhabi's Murban crude now trades at a premium of over $30/barrel to Dubai.
This means → Murban is at least $10 more expensive than U.S. WTI delivered to East Asia, a stark measure of how scarce Middle Eastern barrels have become.
In plain terms = Middle Eastern and U.S. crude used to trade close together; the wide gap shows Asian buyers are willing to pay up just to secure Middle Eastern supply.
What has gone wrong on the supply side?
The Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway linking the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean, carrying roughly one-third of the world's seaborne crude — still saw about 6–8 million barrels/day transit last week.
But a tanker attack late last month has already disrupted flows: at least two Indian refiners had August cargoes pushed back to September or October.
This reflects a shift — Hormuz risk is no longer hypothetical; it is already altering delivery schedules.
What is happening to Iranian and Saudi exports?
U.S. enforcement measures have squeezed Iranian shipments to China, effectively pushing Iranian crude out of the market.
Tanker-tracking data from Bloomberg, Vortexa, and Kpler show Saudi crude exports have fallen to their lowest level on record, dating back to early 2017.
This means → the world's largest exporter is shipping less while Asian demand surges — both sides of the equation are tightening at once.
What comes next?
The combination of tighter supply and surging demand leaves Middle Eastern crude prices highly sensitive to further upside.
The single decisive variable: whether transit through the Strait of Hormuz can normalize.
Put simply = if the strait stays open, pressure eases; if it stays constrained, oil prices have more room to rise — and the balance currently tilts toward the latter.
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