Asian Stocks Set to Follow Wall Street Higher on Sept. 3; Oil Steadies After Three-Day Rally
nashnova research
The S&P 500 snapped a three-day losing streak and futures in Japan, South Korea, and Australia all point higher; oil steadied after rallying roughly 9% in three days, but unresolved U.S.–Iran hostilities keep supply-disruption risk alive.
Why is Asia likely to open higher?
The S&P 500 ended its three-session slide; the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2%, giving Asian markets a positive handoff.
Futures in Japan, South Korea, and Australia all pointed up in early trade.
This means → Asia's open is largely dictated by overnight Wall Street tone, and today's signal is "the sell-off has paused."
Oil surged 9% — why did it stall?
WTI slipped 0.3% to $90.72 a barrel; Brent settled at $95.63 — a pause after a three-day rally of roughly 9%.
Trump said strikes on Iran "won't last much longer" and reiterated U.S. control of the Strait of Hormuz — markets read this as a short-term de-escalation cue.
But he also said the U.S. is "ready to launch another round of strikes," so supply-disruption fears have not fully faded.
In plain terms = oil stopped rising not because the risk disappeared, but because the most violent shock has been priced in — traders are now waiting for the next catalyst.
Where does the U.S.–Iran conflict actually stand?
Bloomberg reported the U.S. military completed a second round of strikes on Iranian southern-coast radar systems and mine-laying capabilities within three days.
Iran retaliated with drones and missiles against U.S. bases across the Middle East, continuing a conflict pattern that has lasted roughly six months.
Neither side has shown willingness to negotiate since the Islamabad interim ceasefire collapsed in June; crude has risen more than 30% since the war began.
This reflects a "chronic war premium" rather than a one-off shock — each leg higher in oil nudges inflation expectations up another notch.
Will the Fed still hike in September?
New York Fed President Williams said inflation continues to cool, tariff effects are fading, and high energy prices have not yet fed through to services — but he did not rule out a September hike.
Evercore analyst Krishna Guha commented: "His remarks by no means rule out September, but they do challenge the view that a hike is a done deal."
This means → the Fed is in "data-dependent" mode and won't pre-commit; Friday's non-farm payrolls report is the real verdict.
What are jobs and FX markets signaling?
ADP data showed U.S. private payrolls grew at the slowest pace since January, read by markets as a cooling signal for the labor market.
The dollar index fell 0.2% and Treasury yields edged back from multi-year highs — a direct response to softening rate-hike expectations.
The yen surged 1.2% to 158.22 at one point, sparking speculation of Japanese official intervention, before pulling back to around 158.73.
Gold rose 0.2% to $4,390.85 an ounce; Bitcoin fell 0.3% to $77,189.
Can this rebound last?
Edward Jones analyst Angelo Kourkafas said: "Stocks are finding their footing after a tough September start; fundamentals remain constructive, and seasonal headwinds alone are not enough to derail the broader uptrend."
In plain terms = near-term, Friday's payrolls will shape the Fed's September decision; medium-term, whether oil prices keep feeding through to inflation expectations is the core variable determining how far this rebound can run.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。