AXA Investment Managers Buys 2-Year U.S. Treasuries to Hedge Against Growth Slowdown Risk
nashnova research
Amundi, Europe's largest asset manager, is buying two-year U.S. Treasuries — betting that an oil-price shock could force the Fed to rethink its rate path. Once the two-year yield broke above 4.5%, the firm saw hedging value in short-dated debt.
What is Amundi buying, and why now?
Amundi — roughly $2.8 trillion in assets, headquartered in Paris — is buying two-year U.S. Treasuries and trimming its short position on the front end of the U.S. yield curve.
The trigger: the two-year yield broke above 4.5% for the first time since 2024. This means → Amundi believes the sell-off in short bonds has gone far enough to flip from shorting to buying.
In plain terms = they had been betting bonds would keep falling; now they think the price is low enough to start buying back in.
Why two-year bonds instead of ten-year?
Two-year Treasuries are the most rate-sensitive maturity — if the Fed pauses or pivots, this is the tenor whose yield drops first and whose price rebounds fastest.
Nicolas Dahan, senior portfolio manager for global bonds at Amundi, laid out the logic: high oil prices → slower growth → the Fed may reassess its tightening path. The two-year is the best instrument to capture that turning point.
In plain terms = think of the two-year as a thermometer with the highest sensitivity — the moment the central bank wavers, it reacts first.
How much pressure is the global bond market under?
Escalation in the Middle East has pushed Brent crude above $100 a barrel, lifting both inflation expectations and borrowing costs.
The U.S. ten-year yield is closing in on 5% — a level only briefly touched once since 2007. Germany's ten-year hit its highest since 2009. The ECB has raised rates twice since the conflict erupted.
This reflects a wave of "capitulation selling" across global bonds — driven by the triple squeeze of an oil-price shock, central-bank hikes, and elevated sovereign debt levels.
How is Amundi's broader strategy shifting?
Previously, Amundi was short U.S., European, and U.K. fixed income, and had rotated into emerging-market bonds offering higher real yields and stronger growth.
Now, with developed-market yields at these levels, Dahan says "buying opportunities are emerging." The firm is slowly moving back to long duration, steadily re-entering developed markets.
This means → one of the world's largest asset managers believes the bond sell-off in developed markets is nearing its end and is beginning to accumulate positions in stages.
What does this mean for everyday borrowers?
U.S. mortgage rates have climbed to a high not seen in over a year — a politically sensitive number with midterm elections approaching, since housing costs hit voters directly.
Dahan warns that with an oil supply shock, central-bank repricing, and "capitulation selling in the bond market" all converging, the picture could shift fast — just as multiple central banks reversed course mid-cycle in previous tightening episodes.
In plain terms = if high oil prices genuinely drag the economy down, central banks may slam the brakes on rate hikes. Bond prices would snap back quickly — and that is exactly the bet Amundi is placing now.
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