Bank of Korea: South Korea's Memory Chip Lead Over China Set to Widen Further
nashnova research
The Bank of Korea said on September 4 that Samsung and SK Hynix expansion plans will widen South Korea's memory chip lead over China — and the real gap in shipments is far larger than nameplate capacity suggests.
How much capacity is South Korea adding?
New fabs planned before 2028 will lift South Korea's monthly output by roughly 600,000 wafers.
This means → Samsung and SK Hynix are stacking another layer onto their absolute production wall in memory chips.
Can China close the gap?
China's largest memory chipmaker, CXMT (长鑫存储), plans to raise monthly capacity from 300,000 to up to 600,000 wafers — on paper, a match.
But the Bank of Korea flags a critical gap: CXMT's actual shipments fall far short of its nameplate capacity.
In plain terms = the fabs are built, but yield — the share of chips good enough to sell — and technology lag behind. CXMT holds roughly 15% of global nameplate capacity yet ships only about 8% of the world's memory output.
This means → the real gap between the two countries is nearly twice as wide as the capacity figures suggest.
Where is the money coming from?
CXMT completed a roughly $10 billion IPO in July — China's second-largest ever.
YMTC (长江存储) plans a roughly $4.6 billion share offering before year-end.
This means → both Chinese memory players are tapping capital markets at once, a sign that the funding shortfall for expansion is too large for state subsidies alone.
What role do U.S. export controls play?
The Bank of Korea says U.S. export curbs and trade blacklists continue to block China's access to cutting-edge equipment and tools.
This means → South Korea's lead in advanced memory technology is likely to hold for the next several years.
CXMT remains largely confined to serving China's domestic market, unable to compete head-to-head with Korean firms globally.
Where is the long-term risk?
The report also flags a longer-horizon concern: as Chinese firms raise self-sufficiency and build out domestic supply chains, South Korea's market share could face growing structural pressure.
CXMT's new Shanghai fab is part of Beijing's plan to build a complete semiconductor ecosystem spanning raw materials, equipment, packaging, and chip design.
In plain terms = China is not just building factories — it is assembling an entire chain from feedstock to finished product. Once that chain works, Korea's advantage becomes a market problem, not just a technology problem.
Whether yields can keep improving is the key variable for when this pressure shifts from potential to real.
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