Bernstein: Bitcoin Could Reach $300K by End of 2029
Nashnova编辑部
Bernstein forecasts bitcoin will hit $300,000 by late 2029 — roughly four times its current ~$78,000 price — driven by a resurgent dollar-debasement trade as U.S. federal debt tops $40 trillion.
Where does the $300,000 target come from?
Analyst Gautam Chhugani uses a price-to-marginal-cost framework — a model that derives bitcoin's fair value from mining costs — and sets two waypoints: $150,000 by mid-2027, then $300,000 by end of 2029.
This means → Bernstein sees the rally unfolding in two legs: first a new all-time high, then a doubling from there.
In plain terms = the model assumes mining costs keep rising, and the premium the market pays for scarcity rises in step.
Why is the "debasement trade" back in focus now?
The report's core driver is the debasement trade — investors shifting into scarce or real assets to hedge a weakening dollar.
Key data: U.S. federal debt crossed $40 trillion this month, double the 2016 level. The Treasury then expanded bond buybacks to suppress yields.
This means → the government is borrowing more while artificially holding down interest costs — the market reads that as "the dollar will keep losing value," and bitcoin benefits.
Bitcoin reclaimed $80,000 on Monday — up 21% over the past month.
Will Strategy resume buying bitcoin?
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) holds roughly 4% of all bitcoin globally, making it the largest corporate holder.
Its balance sheet has stabilized: annual dividend cash coverage is about 3.9×, and its perpetual preferred stock STRC has recovered to $97.
In plain terms = if STRC climbs back to its $100 par value, Strategy's funding channel reopens, and the company could resume large-scale bitcoin purchases.
What does Bernstein think of Strategy's stock?
Bernstein keeps an "outperform" rating but cuts the 12-month target from $450 to $350 — still implying about 176% upside from Tuesday's close.
Of the 20 analysts covering Strategy, 18 rate it "buy" or "strong buy."
This reflects a market that remains bullish long-term but acknowledges sharp near-term pressure — the stock is down nearly 20% year-to-date and roughly 65% from its peak a year ago.
What would it take for this forecast to actually play out?
Bernstein itself flags two preconditions: the dollar-debasement thesis must keep strengthening, and institutional money must keep flowing in at higher price levels.
This means → if U.S. fiscal discipline returns, the dollar rallies, or institutions stop chasing bitcoin above a certain threshold, the $300,000 target breaks down.
In plain terms = this is not an unconditional prediction — it is a conditional scenario built on the bet that the dollar keeps weakening.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。