Bessent Bets on Dollar Stablecoins to Bolster Short-Term Treasury Demand
Nashnova编辑部
Treasury Secretary Bessent is banking on dollar stablecoins as a structural buyer of short-term Treasuries — the Genius Act requires roughly 80 cents of every stablecoin dollar to sit in T-bills, ten times the bank ratio, but the road from $300 billion to $4 trillion is anything but certain.
Why do stablecoins have to buy T-bills?
The Genius Act, passed last year, mandates that dollar-pegged stablecoins issued in the U.S. must hold reserves in specified assets — including T-bills maturing within 93 days.
This means → for every $1 of stablecoin issued, roughly $0.80 must go into short-term Treasuries. Banks, by contrast, allocate only about $0.08 per dollar of assets to T-bills.
In plain terms = the law forces stablecoin issuers to park the vast majority of their money in short-dated government debt — making them ten times more intensive T-bill buyers than banks.
$300 billion to $4 trillion — is the number realistic?
Global stablecoin market capitalization currently sits at roughly $300 billion, still tiny against the nearly $8 trillion U.S. money-market-fund industry.
Bessent has cited forecasts that the market could grow to nearly $4 trillion, stating explicitly that "this will reduce government borrowing costs."
Citi's "bull case" estimate: at $4 trillion, stablecoin holdings would account for roughly one quarter of all outstanding T-bills by 2030.
A Brookings Institution report adds that much of the new demand could come from savers in countries with unstable currencies — people who cannot open U.S. bank accounts but can hold dollar stablecoins. This reflects a demand driver that extends well beyond American borders.
Where is the Clarity Act stuck?
Further stablecoin expansion hinges on passage of the Clarity Act, which would regulate the broader crypto-asset market.
The core standoff: interest returns available to stablecoin holders are viewed by banks as direct competition with deposit rates — and the banking lobby is pushing back.
Trump met crypto-industry executives at the White House last week, personally urging the bill forward; the SEC simultaneously proposed a new crypto-asset regulatory framework.
TD Cowen analyst Bryan Bergin noted the act would "reduce friction through a clearer regulatory environment," but added that stablecoin adoption is already advancing without it.
What does this mean for the Treasury market?
TD Securities rate strategists wrote that stablecoin growth could "affect Treasury debt-management decisions, leading to a shorter weighted-average maturity of issuance."
This means → if stablecoins become a large, reliable buyer of short-dated debt, Treasury can tilt issuance toward bills and away from longer bonds — lowering short-end funding costs.
The Brookings report flags a critical question: whether stablecoin-driven Treasury demand will be steady or volatile — a distinction that directly shapes whether Treasury can safely restructure its maturity profile.
How long is this road?
Data from DefiLlama shows total stablecoin market cap has plateaued in recent months, barely changed from last October.
Stablecoins also face competition from tokenized deposits and digitized T-bills — newer forms chasing the same use case.
Bergin sees "AI-agent commerce as a potential long-term catalyst for stablecoin usage," with cross-border and business-to-business payments as nearer-term drivers.
Put simply = as the Wall Street Journal observed, the day stablecoins meaningfully move government borrowing costs "is a journey far longer than a single presidential term."
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.