Bitcoin Under Pressure as Digital Asset Clarity Act Passage Probability Drops to 38%
Claire Weston
Bitcoin slid to around $65,500 as surging oil prices and rising Treasury yields squeezed risk assets, while the Senate's Digital Asset Clarity Act saw its implied passage odds plunge from 46% to 38% — macro headwinds and regulatory uncertainty hitting crypto simultaneously.
How far has Bitcoin fallen, and why?
Bitcoin traded around $65,500 Thursday morning, down roughly 1.8% from Wednesday's $66,700 high.
Ethereum, Solana, and XRP fell in tandem — this is a market-wide move, not a single-token story.
This means → when major tokens drop together, the driver is almost always macro, not project-specific news.
Where is the macro pressure coming from?
WTI crude rose to $88.60 per barrel, the highest since June 11, extending a sharp rally from below $70.
This means → surging oil revives fears of another inflation shock, shrinking central banks' room to cut rates.
Bond markets moved first: the U.S. two-year yield hit 4.31% (highest since February 2025) and the 10-year reached 4.66% (highest since May).
In plain terms = the higher Treasury yields go, the more attractive "safe, interest-bearing" bonds become — holding Bitcoin, an asset that pays no interest, costs more by comparison, so capital migrates to fixed income.
What role does geopolitics play?
Axios reported the U.S. military deployed B-1 bombers Tuesday to strike targets linked to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
The move is seen as a clear escalation in U.S. military operations, deepening market caution.
This means → geopolitical risk on top of inflation pressure creates a double headwind pushing capital away from high-risk assets.
What happened to the Digital Asset Clarity Act?
Several key Senate Democrats said the latest draft has "clear shortcomings" in ethics provisions and other core areas.
On Polymarket — a decentralized prediction platform — the bill's implied passage odds fell from 46% to 38%.
Senate Republicans released an updated draft Wednesday with ethics provisions agreed upon with the White House; Senator Bernie Moreno called them "the strongest ethics provisions in American history" — but Democrats remain unconvinced.
What does this mean for crypto markets?
The bill's dimming prospects push the long-awaited regulatory framework further into the future.
In plain terms = without clear rules, large institutional capital stays on the sidelines — that is a structural ceiling on the market.
Regulatory delay, oil-driven inflation fears, and rising Treasury yields form a triple headwind that will continue to test risk appetite.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.