Bloomberg Intelligence: CXMT's Inclusion in CSI 300 Unlikely Before Late 2027
Nashnova编辑部
CXMT (长鑫存储) listed on Shanghai's STAR Market at a ¥3.5 trillion valuation — making it China's largest public company — but index rules bar STAR-listed stocks from the CSI 300 for at least one year, meaning this mega-cap won't enter the benchmark until late 2027 at the earliest, leaving the index without its most important constituent.
How big is CXMT, and why can't the CSI 300 include it?
CXMT (长鑫存储) listed last month on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's STAR Market with a market cap of roughly ¥3.5 trillion (≈$524 billion), making it China's largest listed company.
CSI 300 rules require STAR-listed companies to wait at least one year after listing before they can be included, unless an exemption is granted.
This means → China's single heaviest stock is locked out of its most-tracked broad-market index for at least a year.
How does Bloomberg Intelligence frame the problem?
Analyst Rebecca Sin and colleagues compared the situation to "an S&P 500 without Nvidia" — the index is missing its most important constituent.
By their estimate, CXMT would carry a weight of roughly 7.8% once included — comparable to Nvidia's weight in the S&P 500.
In plain terms = imagine the S&P 500 without Nvidia — would you still buy an ETF that tracks it? That is the CSI 300's predicament right now.
Could a fast-track exception be made?
China Securities Index Co. could theoretically create an accelerated inclusion pathway for CXMT, but analysts consider this unlikely.
The report cites the precedent of SpaceX in the U.S., whose share price fell below its IPO price after being fast-tracked into an index.
This means → if CXMT were to follow a similar trajectory, it could drag down the CSI 300 and "damage market credibility."
Will the problem keep getting bigger?
Yangtze Memory Technologies (长江存储) is planning an IPO and may also choose the STAR Market; Unitree Robotics (宇树科技) has confirmed a STAR listing; DeepSeek (深度求索) is considering an IPO as well.
If all these companies list on the STAR Market, they will face "long and overlapping waiting periods."
This reflects a structural contradiction: China's next wave of growth engines is concentrated on the STAR Market, but CSI 300 inclusion rules leave the index with minimal exposure to them.
Where is the money flowing instead?
Until CXMT is included, ETFs tracking the CSI 300 may continue to see outflows.
Meanwhile, CXMT is expected to enter the STAR 50 Index in coming months with a weight of roughly 9%.
Year to date, the STAR 50 is up 28% versus just 0.7% for the CSI 300. Société Générale analyst Manish Kabra noted that "China's AI capex cycle is at a stage equivalent to where the U.S. was in 2023" — and the STAR 50 has the highest exposure to the beneficiaries of that spending wave.
Will the CSI 300's rules change?
Whether the CSI 300 can adjust its rules to retain institutional capital will serve as a gauge of China's willingness to reform its capital markets.
In plain terms = this is not just a technical question about index methodology — it tests whether regulators are willing to bend the rules for market competitiveness.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.