BofA: Global Tin Supply Continues to Underperform Expectations, Market Remains in Tight Balance
nashnova research
Bank of America's latest research note says refined tin supply recovery keeps lagging expectations, with disruptions hitting Myanmar, Indonesia, and the DRC simultaneously. Backed by electronics and solar demand, the market is set to stay in a tight balance with a small deficit — LME tin has already touched a record near $58,000/t.
Tin hit a record — how tight is the physical market?
LME three-month tin touched close to $58,000/t in June, a historic high.
Visible exchange inventories rose to 21,400 tonnes in early June, then drew down rapidly. China's spot tin premium rebounded from near zero in May to RMB 700–1,300/t now.
This means → the rally is not just financial speculation — falling stocks and rising premiums show physical buyers are scrambling for metal, and fundamentals are genuinely tightening.
What went wrong in the three key supply regions?
Myanmar: Wa State resumed mining and shipments briefly picked up, but momentum faded. Until deeper levels of the Man Xiang mine are dewatered, near-term supply is unlikely to accelerate.
Indonesia: After reinstating RKAB (annual mining work-plan) approvals on April 1, tin exports in April plunged 54% year-on-year. President Prabowo also plans to set up a new commodity exchange by January 2027, stating: "If they don't want to pay the price we set, then don't buy."
DRC: Alphamin's Bisie mine output is temporarily stable, on track for its 20,000 t annual target, but shipments to China have started to decline since May. Rising costs, logistics difficulties, and greater government intervention on strategic minerals — BofA calls this the biggest upside risk to tin prices.
Is demand really that strong?
Global semiconductor sales are up nearly 90% year-on-year in 2025, driven by AI investment and data-center expansion.
In plain terms = high-value AI and memory chips inflate the dollar value of sales, but tin consumption per chip hasn't risen proportionally — physical tin demand is weaker than the headline semiconductor numbers suggest.
Solar PV now consumes about 40,000 tonnes of tin per year, roughly 10% of global demand, and remains a key long-term growth driver. Traditional end-uses — chemicals, tinplate, PVC stabilizers — stay weak and are unlikely to lift overall consumption meaningfully.
Can new mines fill the gap?
BofA estimates the current project pipeline could add roughly 30,000–33,000 t/year of mine output by 2030 — but most won't come online until after 2028–2029, and none of the major projects have reached a final investment decision.
This means → even in a best case, no large-scale new supply arrives for two to three years. The tight-balance regime won't break in the near term.
Why are countries racing to secure tin resources?
US: The Department of Defense in September 2024 awarded $19 million to Nathan Trotter to build domestic tin smelting capacity. The company then announced plans to invest about $65 million in its Tin Ridge project in Virginia.
China: Inner Mongolia Xingye Silver & Tin acquired 100% ownership of the Achmmach project in Morocco in 2026.
This reflects a shift: tin is moving from "minor metal" to strategic resource, and upstream competition is likely to intensify further.
What to watch next?
BofA's bottom line: until new supply comes online at scale, the core variable for tin prices is whether Indonesian policy or DRC instability deteriorates beyond expectations.
In plain terms = supply is already tight. If either of those two regions delivers another negative surprise, tin prices have room to run higher still.
Conversely, if Myanmar's dewatering goes smoothly and Indonesia eases its approvals, the tight balance could start to loosen.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。