BofA Survey: Fund Managers Turn Bullish on China's Economy for the First Time in Six Months
Nashnova编辑部
BofA's August Asia fund-manager survey shows the net percentage expecting a stronger Chinese economy turned positive for the first time in six months, driven by AI optimism — yet hard data deteriorated across the board, leaving the rally's staying power hinging on Beijing's willingness to stimulate.
What did this survey actually find?
BofA polled 105 fund managers overseeing a combined $272 billion in assets between August 7 and 13.
The net share expecting China's economy to strengthen over the next 12 months flipped back to positive, ending six straight months of bearish readings.
This means → professional money has reached an inflection point on China, shifting from "consensus bearish" to "divided, leaning bullish."
Why did AI change their minds?
The share naming China as the biggest beneficiary of AI's next cycle jumped 10 percentage points to 18%, tying with the U.S.
In plain terms = fund managers used to assume AI gains belonged to America alone. Now nearly one in five thinks China can claim an equal share.
This reflects a broader re-pricing: Chinese tech companies' AI progress is reshaping how global capital values Chinese assets.
Is money actually flowing in?
Not yet in size — a net 18% of respondents still underweight China, only slightly better than July's net 20%.
BofA analyst Kaspar Lam's team called the shift a "marginal improvement."
This means → sentiment is warming, but managers are still at the "cut less" stage, nowhere near "buy aggressively."
Why are the hard numbers telling the opposite story?
Manufacturing PMI — a monthly gauge of factory-sector health — showed momentum weakening further during the survey window. Industrial output, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment all missed expectations.
Société Générale economist Wei Yao said growth momentum outside China's tech sector is "collapsing."
In plain terms = AI is booming, but the rest of the real economy — factories, malls, infrastructure — is slowing. The macro picture does not support the optimism.
What will Beijing do? That is the only question that matters
JPMorgan Private Bank's Yuxuan Tang noted China's growth engine is increasingly lopsided — strong exports carry most of the load while domestic demand stays weak.
He expects policy support to remain "moderate and gradual," echoing Macquarie economist Larry Hu's "Goldilocks easing" thesis.
This means → whether fund managers' optimism pays off comes down to a single variable: will Beijing ramp up stimulus? If policy stays incremental, the sentiment uptick may prove short-lived.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.