China Releases Intelligent Connected Vehicle Roadmap, Targeting Large-Scale Autonomous Driving Deployment by 2030
nashnova research
Nine ministries jointly issued China's 2026–2030 auto plan, setting hard targets of 70% NEV share for passenger cars and large-scale autonomous deployment — while signaling a shift from capacity expansion to industry consolidation.
What do the two hard targets actually require?
New-energy passenger vehicles must reach 70% of new-car sales; commercial vehicles must hit 40%. This means → by 2030, at least 7 out of every 10 passenger cars sold in China will be new-energy.
Vehicles with autonomous-driving capability must operate at scale on highways, urban expressways, and select city roads — and must achieve a safety record above that of human drivers.
In plain terms = the bar is not "can it drive itself" but "can it drive safer than a person" — moving the threshold from technical demo to safety proof.
Where do the efficiency targets bite?
Average passenger-car fuel consumption must fall to 3.3 liters per 100 km; average BEV energy consumption must drop to roughly 11.5 kWh per 100 km.
This means → automakers cannot hit targets on volume alone. Per-vehicle efficiency must keep falling, imposing hard requirements on battery energy density and vehicle lightweighting.
Why cultivate "global top-ten" automakers?
The plan calls for nurturing several Chinese automakers that rank among the global top ten by sales, and lists boosting brand influence and gaining a stronger voice in international standard-setting as priorities.
MIIT will encourage Sino-foreign cooperation in R&D, investment, and overseas expansion for both complete vehicles and key components, and will issue compliance guidelines.
This reflects a policy goal that has moved beyond domestic substitution to global ranking — not just exporting cars, but shaping the rules.
How will capacity consolidation work?
The plan tightens oversight of vehicle and power-battery capacity, curbing excessive investment, encouraging industry consolidation, and phasing out inefficient capacity.
It also calls for stronger antitrust enforcement, better quality supervision, fair competition, and an explicit crackdown on improper incentives from local governments to automakers.
In plain terms = the old model — local governments competing to subsidize new factories — is being reined in. Inefficient capacity and local protectionism are both called out by name.
What does a nine-ministry joint signature mean?
The co-signers span MIIT, the NDRC, the Ministry of Public Security, the Ministry of Transport, MOFCOM, and four others — nine ministries in total, a notably broader coalition than previous policy documents.
Regulators will tighten rules on vehicle production, road safety, autonomous driving, and over-the-air software updates, while creating special approval channels for key components and small-batch vehicles.
This means → autonomous deployment touches road rights, safety, telecoms, and data across multiple agencies. The nine-ministry signature is designed to clear cross-departmental approval barriers.
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