China's Above-Scale Industrial Raw Coal Output at 360 Million Tons in August, Down 7.7% YoY
nashnova research
China's NBS reported on September 15 that August raw coal output from above-scale industrial producers hit 360 million tonnes, down 7.7% year-on-year — the decline narrowed but cumulative output remains negative, making coal supply the key variable for energy prices ahead.
How much did coal output fall, and is the trend improving?
August raw coal output reached 360 million tonnes, down 7.7% year-on-year, with daily output at 11.67 million tonnes.
The decline narrowed by 2.4 percentage points from July. This means → the monthly drop is shrinking, but the direction is still "less mining."
January-to-August cumulative output was 3.06 billion tonnes, still down 3.3%. In plain terms = the monthly numbers are healing, but the first eight months as a whole remain in deficit — the supply gap has not closed.
What is happening with oil and natural gas?
August crude oil output was 18.43 million tonnes, up 0.8% year-on-year, flat with July; cumulative output reached 146.39 million tonnes, up 0.9% — steady but with little upside elasticity.
Crude oil throughput — the volume refineries process into fuel and chemicals — came in at 59.07 million tonnes, down 6.9%, but the decline narrowed sharply by 8.9 percentage points from July. This means → refinery utilisation is rebounding from lows; downstream demand may be bottoming out.
Natural gas output in August was 21.4 billion cubic metres, up 0.8%, versus a 0.9% decline in July. This reflects a supply-side inflection — gas output has flipped from contraction to growth.
Why did power generation fall, and which sources are rising?
August power generation totalled 943.8 billion kWh, down 0.8% year-on-year; cumulative January-to-August output was 6,647.6 billion kWh, still up 2.4%.
The drag came from thermal power: down 4.3%, with the decline widening 0.8 percentage points from July. In plain terms = coal-fired generation is retreating faster — two sides of the same coin as falling coal output.
Clean energy accelerated across the board — nuclear up 9.4%, wind up 7.9%, solar up 10.3%, all faster than July. This reflects a structural shift: the power mix is moving from "coal-dominated" to "diversified clean" at an accelerating pace.
What should we watch next?
Coal's monthly decline is narrowing, but cumulative growth remains at -3.3%. This means → if coming months fail to deliver a sustained recovery, the full-year coal supply gap will be confirmed.
Coal supply shrinking + thermal power declining + clean energy accelerating — all three lines point to one conclusion: whether coal supply can recover is the key variable for energy prices in the second half.
Oil throughput's sharply narrower decline and natural gas flipping to growth show oil-and-gas pressure is easing, but the coal gap remains the largest uncertainty in the entire energy picture.
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