China's July Crude Steel Output Falls 3.6% YoY as Rebar Prices Hit Near-Decade Lows
Nashnova编辑部
China's July crude steel output fell to 76.93 million tonnes, down 3.6% year-on-year — the lowest single month since 2026 — as rebar prices slid to a near-decade low on shrinking property and infrastructure demand.
How far has output fallen?
July crude steel production came in at 76.93 million tonnes, down 3.6% year-on-year — the weakest single month since 2026.
The January–July total reached 577.04 million tonnes, down 3.1%, putting full-year output on track for the lowest of the decade.
This means → the contraction is not a one-month blip but a trend that has persisted for the better part of the year.
Why can't demand recover?
Construction activity keeps shrinking; the latest PMI construction sub-index is still weakening, and fixed-asset investment is falling sharply.
The property-market crisis shows no clear sign of improvement, and the seasonal demand lull is compounding the pressure.
In plain terms = the two biggest steel buyers — homebuilders and infrastructure projects — are both pulling back at the same time.
What are prices signalling?
Rebar — the steel product most used in buildings and infrastructure — has dropped to a near-decade low in spot markets.
Benchmark iron-ore futures, the key steelmaking input, have fallen decisively below $100 per tonne.
This means → from finished steel to upstream raw materials, prices across the entire chain are confirming the same thing: not enough demand.
Will policy step in?
Beijing has shown a degree of tolerance for slower economic growth, and that policy stance is capping demand-side recovery.
Whether output stabilises this year hinges on whether the property market delivers tangible signs of repair.
This reflects a triple squeeze — shrinking demand, falling prices, and a wait-and-see policy posture — with no obvious pressure point likely to ease first.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.